Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

Le Facteur Rohani

PALO ALTO – Les élections présidentielles iraniennes, le 19 mai, furent paradoxales et pourraient être un moment charnière. Elles ont commencé comme une affaire paisible – la victoire du sortant, Hassan Rohani, qui n’avait en face de lui qu’une équipe hétéroclite de responsables usés et de jeunes arrivistes, était probable. D’autant que depuis 1981, la norme semble s’être installée d’une présidence à deux mandats. Les premières attaques contre Rohani furent donc vues comme des tentatives du Guide suprême, Ali Khamenei, et de ses alliés parmi les religieux conservateurs et les Gardiens de la révolution pour fragiliser le second mandat du président sortant.  

Mais l’élection se resserra lorsque les conservateurs s’unirent derrière un candidat inattendu, Ebrahim Raissi, un juge ultra s’étant par le passé comporté avec une grande brutalité à l’égard de l’opposition. Le fait que Khamenei eut nommé un peu plus tôt Raissi à la tête d’une des plus puissantes fondations religieuses du pays n’était plus désormais considéré comme une largesse, mais comme une manœuvre pour le positionner en successeur.

Il était alors admis qu’une victoire de Raissi garantirait virtuellement son succès dans une lutte ultérieure pour conquérir la charge de Guide suprême, Khamenei ayant lui-même été président lorsqu’il fut catapulté à ce poste après la mort de l’ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Khamenei souffrant, disait-on, d’un cancer, la question de la succession devenait plus pressante. Il en résultat que le puissant appareil idéologique, institutionnel et de propagande des conservateurs se mobilisa en faveur de Raissi, contre Rohani.

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