Der Renminbi und die Realität

PEKING – Der Wechselkurs des Renminbi ist wieder einmal zur Zielscheibe des Kongresses der Vereinigten Staaten geworden. Das Einprügeln auf China, so scheint es, ist in Amerika wieder in Mode gekommen.

Doch erscheinen die Beschimpfungen Chinas diesmal merkwürdiger als in der letzten Runde. Als der Kongress China 2004-2005 drängte, eine umfangreiche Neubewertung seiner Währung vorzunehmen, wuchs Chinas Leistungsbilanzüberschuss mit zunehmender Geschwindigkeit an. Diesmal ist Chinas Leistungsbilanzüberschuss aufgrund der globalen Rezession, die durch den Zusammenbruch der US-Finanzblase verursacht wurde, stark geschrumpft. Chinas jährlicher Gesamtüberschuss (Hongkong ausgeschlossen) liegt derzeit bei 200 Milliarden USD, das heißt, er ist seit 2008 um etwa ein Drittel gesunken. In Bezug auf das BIP ist er sogar noch stärker gefallen, da dass BIP 2008 um 8,7 % gewachsen ist.

Damals drückte die Bindung des Renminbi an den Dollar Chinas realen effektiven Wechselkurs, da der Dollar gegenüber anderen Währungen, wie dem Euro, dem britischen Pfund und dem Yen, an Wert verlor. Doch dieses Mal ist der Dollar in den letzten Monaten gegenüber anderen großen Währungen gestiegen, sodass der relativ feste Wechselkurs zwischen Dollar und Renminbi dazu geführt hat, dass Chinas Währung im Hinblick auf ihren realen effektiven Kurs gestärkt wurde.

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