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Economics

石油反弹的极限

May 30, 2016 Anatole Kaletsky

伦敦—自去年10月以来，石油价格首次突破了每桶50美元。看起来是时候更新我在2015年1月所做的分析了。

当时，我指出50美元左右将成为石油价格的长期顶部。当时原油仍在60美元以上，几乎所有人都认为50美元是铁底。毕竟，期货市场预测价格将保持在75美元或以上，沙特和俄罗斯政府需要100美元的价格才能保持预算平衡；而任何低于50美元的价格都被认为是不可持续的，因为这将让美国页岩油行业破产。

事实证明，去年上半年，布伦特原油确实在50美元到70美元的区间内波动，然后再8月初决定性地跌破50美元，当时取消伊朗制裁显然将大幅提高全球供给。此后，50美元果真成为石油价格的顶部。但现在这一水平已被突破，它会再次成为底部吗？

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 Comments on this article

David Lloyd-Jones Jun 19, 2016

Surely the point is, the price of oil is completely in Mr. Putin's hands. As long as he threatens Ukraine or the Baltic states, oil will run in the streets like water in the monsoon.

If he behaves himself, President Obama, middle name conveniently "Hussein," and friends will throttle it back and allow the Russian economy a chance.

Of course a Trump presidency, and who knows? Before the Texas Railroad Commission got on the case, the stuff went for a nickel a barrel -- but they didn't love Mr. Putin half naked on horseback the way The Donald seems to.

-dlj.
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Philip Verelger Jun 5, 2016

Anatole is probably correct.

The oil market is suffering through one of the largest disruptions that has occurred in the last thirty years. Over 4 million barrels of productive capacity is shut, 4 percent of the world’s capacity. In the last three months perhaps 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels a day have been shut due to fires in Canada, attacks in Nigeria and the collapse in Venezuela. Attention to the disruption, though has been minimal as compared to say the collapse of Libyan output in 2011 or Iraq’s attacks on Iran in 1980.

The price increase associated with the disruption is comparable to price increases in earlier disruptions. In the coming months much of the lost production will be restored and prices will likely decline, as they did in earlier episodes.

Philip Verleger
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Arun Motianey Jun 2, 2016

I fear Kaletsky will be wrong again, as he has been recently -- horribly so, I might add -- in respect of the big consumption boom he told us was coming as a result of collapsing oil prices and what that would do consumers' real purchasing power. Alas, he failed to detect that this didn't help even US consumers very much (and mind you they had the benefit of falling oil denominated in their own appreciating currency). He also failed to notice that declining oil prices do bad things to global aggregate demand because of the havoc they play with expenditures in oil exporting economies. Finally, he did not recognize that the real damage they do is to bank balance sheets who see a spike in distressed loans. And the last is something central banks will not abide. Hence, oil is on its way up this time (with or without a strong dollar). And the devil take the hindmost. (Oil is the devil's excrement, as they say in Venezuela.)
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Mike Holly May 30, 2016

As someone in the energy industry, I find the predictions in the article and comments less than compelling. There is just too many variables and too little facts.
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John Brian Shannon May 30, 2016

Hi Anatole,

I too, have written about the oil market, and it appears that until now, we were in perfect alignment, especially on pricing.

However, I've said all along, that since the oil price crash, oil will rebound at a rate of about $10/bbl/per year (beginning in January 2016)

This June (2015) the crude oil price is $50./bbl -- exactly as I had called it in December 2015, and in June of 2015.

June 2016 will see the crude oil price at $60./bbl and June 2017 will see the crude oil price at $70./bbl, and so on. This equation will continue for perhaps 2 decades. (Yes, oil will get expensive again)

There are hundreds of reasons for this; Allow me to cover the Top 3:

1) Except for Iran, it is in the best interests of all the oil-producers to enjoy a higher price for their oil. Consequently, they are all *working around Iran* and setting their production quotas accordingly. This means that Iran can pump more, while the other producers in totality, pump slightly less per month. How much less? Just enough so that the oil price remains stable.

2) Slowly increasing demand will raise the price of oil by $10.00/bbl/per year. All that #1 (above) is doing, is allowing that natural market progression to occur.

3) Over the long term, the most profound change of all is coming to the oil industry (and indeed, has already begun) with oil companies becoming 'Vertically Integrated' organizations. That is where the same company (or a branch of the same company) extracts the oil, refines the oil, and delivers it to the retailer. All oil companies are moving in this direction at varying speeds.

In fact, that largest oil refinery in the U.S.A. (Port Arthur, Texas) is now owned by a Saudi firm, and it is refining Saudi, Venezuelan, and Texas oil. Shell is doing the same thing a few miles away from the Saudi operation. And still other oil companies are doing this around the world.

As Vertical Integration becomes a larger part of the market, we will see the wild oil price swings to which we've been accustomed, begin to disappear -- replaced by incremental price increases, more geared to the final retail prices.

This era of gently rising oil prices and Vertical Integration began in earnest on January 1, 2016, but has been building since 2005.

Oil speculators may hate the fact that we are now in a stable oil market, but the global oil supply and price is far too important to the world economy to be left to speculators -- in whose financial interests it is to wreak havoc in the oil markets, rather than support a stable oil supply/demand/marketplace.

That's just the Top 3 reasons for our new oil paradigm.

As always, very best regards, JBS
- John Brian Shannon May 30, 2016
  
  Second correction (typing too fast)
  
  "June 2017 will see the crude oil price at $60./bbl and June 2018 will see the crude oil price at $70./bbl, and so on. This equation will continue for perhaps 2 decades. (Yes, oil will get expensive again)"
  
  Read the fully corrected comment here if you like:
  
  https://timeinmotionstudy.blogspot.ca/2016/05/my-comment-limits-of-oils-rebound.html
  
  Cheers, JBS
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- John Brian Shannon May 30, 2016
  
  Correction in my comment:
  "This June (2016) the crude oil price is $50./bbl -- exactly as I had called it in December 2015, and in June of 2015." -- JBS
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
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Avraam Dectis May 30, 2016

.
Oil industry is under severe threat of disruption.

Imagine if a technological breakthrough tomorrow doubled or tripled the range of full electric vehicles and did so economically.

We know this will eventually happen, technology is inexorably improving.

At that point, when electric cars have a greater range than internal combustion, are very price competitive and cost almost nothing to refuel - who would want an internal combustion engine?

It may only be a few years until we reach that point.

As suddenly as feature phones disappeared, gas stations could disappear.

Big trucks and a small core of Luddites may stick to gasoline, but for the most part the oil industry may soon emulate the horse buggy industry.

Investors may want to consider that risk.
.
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