Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg via Getty Images

石油反弹的极限

伦敦—自去年10月以来,石油价格首次突破了每桶50美元。看起来是时候更新我在2015年1月所做的分析了。

当时,我指出50美元左右将成为石油价格的长期顶部。当时原油仍在60美元以上,几乎所有人都认为50美元是铁底。毕竟,期货市场预测价格将保持在75美元或以上,沙特和俄罗斯政府需要100美元的价格才能保持预算平衡;而任何低于50美元的价格都被认为是不可持续的,因为这将让美国页岩油行业破产。

事实证明,去年上半年,布伦特原油确实在50美元到70美元的区间内波动,然后再8月初决定性地跌破50美元,当时取消伊朗制裁显然将大幅提高全球供给。此后,50美元果真成为石油价格的顶部。但现在这一水平已被突破,它会再次成为底部吗?

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