oil pumping jack sunset Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg via Getty Images

حدود انتعاش أسعار النفط

لندن ــ كسر سعر برميل النفط حاجز الخمسين دولارا للمرة الأولى منذ أكتوبر/تشرين الأول الماضي. لذا يبدو الآن وقتا مناسبا لتحديث التحليلالذيقدمتهفييناير/كانونالثاني 2015.

قلتُ آنذاك إن50 دولارا أو نحوها ستشكل سقف سعر الدولار في الأمد البعيد. في ذلك الوقت،ومع ثبات أسعار النفط الخام على أكثر من 60 دولارا،كان الجميع تقريبا يعتقدون أن سعر الخمسين دولارا سيكون السعر الأدنى. ففي النهاية،تنبأت أسواق العقود الآجلة بسعر 75 دولاراأوأكثر، كانت كل من الحكومتين السعودية والروسية بحاجة إلى سعر 100 دولار لمعادلة ميزانيتها، وكان أي سعر أقل من 50 دولارا بكثير لا يمكن تحمله لأنهكفيل بإخراج صناعة النفط الصخري الأمريكية من المنافسة.

ومع حدوث هذا،كان سعر خام برنت يتأرجح بالفعل بين 50 دولارا و70 دولارا في النصف الأول من العام الماضي،قبل أن يهبط نهائيا إلى أقل من 50 دولارا في أول أغسطس/آب عندما أصبح منالواضح أن رفع العقوبات عن إيران سيطلق العنان لزيادة هائلة في العرض العالمي. ثبت منذ ذلك الحين أن 50 دولارا هي بالتأكيد سقف أسعار النفط. ولكن الآن بعد تخطِّي هذا المستوى،هل سيصبح أرضية للأسعار؟

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