Forest and industrial field with pollution overhead

От благих намерений к глубокой декарбонизации

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – В преддверии Конференции ООН по Изменению Климата (COP21) в Париже, более 150 правительств представили планы по сокращению выбросов углерода к 2030 году. Многие наблюдатели задаются вопросом, достаточно ли эти сокращения глубоки. Но есть еще более важный вопрос: обеспечит ли, намеченный к 2030 году путь, основу для прекращения выбросов парниковых газов к концу столетия?

Согласно научному консенсусу, стабилизация климата требует полной декарбонизации наших энергетических систем и нулевых объемов чистых выбросов парниковых газов примерно к 2070 году. G-7 признал, что декарбонизация – единственная безопасная гавань от разрушительных изменений климата - является конечной основной целью этого столетия. Многие главы государств G-20 и других стран, публично заявили о своем намерении продолжать этот путь.

Тем не менее, страны, присутствующие на COP21, пока не ведут переговоры о декарбонизации. Они обсуждают гораздо более скромные шаги, до 2025 года или 2030 года, именуемые Предполагаемые Определяемые на Национальном Уровне Вклады (INDCs). Например, INDC Соединенных Штатов, обязывают США сократить до 2025 года выбросы CO2 на 26-28%, по отношению к базовой линии 2005 года.

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