Forest and industrial field with pollution overhead

Des bonnes intentions à la décarbonisation en profondeur

NEW YORK – À l'approche de la Conférence des Nations Unies sur le Changement climatique (COP21) à Paris, plus de 150 gouvernements ont présenté des projets de réduction des émissions de carbone d'ici 2030. De nombreux observateurs se demandent si ces réductions sont suffisantes. Mais il y a une question encore plus importante : l'option choisie à l'horizon 2030 servira-t-elle de base pour mettre fin aux émissions de gaz à effet de serre plus tard dans le siècle ?

D'après le consensus scientifique, la stabilisation du climat exige une décarbonisation complète de nos systèmes énergétiques et des émissions nulles de gaz à effet de serre net autour de 2070. Le G-7 a reconnu que la décarbonisation (le seul moyen d'échapper à un changement climatique catastrophique), est l'objectif ultime de ce siècle. Et de nombreux chefs d'État du G-20 et d'autres pays ont déclaré publiquement leur intention de poursuivre dans cette voie.

Pourtant à la COP21, les pays ne négocient pas encore la décarbonisation. Ils négocient des mesures beaucoup plus modestes, pour 2025 ou 2030, appelées Contributions prévues déterminées au niveau national (INDC). Les INDC des États-Unis, par exemple, engagent les États-Unis à réduire leurs émissions de CO2 de 26 à 28%, par rapport à une base de référence de 2005 d'ici 2025.

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