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I costi non così elevati della Brexit

BRUSSELS – Il voto del Regno Unito sulla Brexit con buone probabilità diventerà il più grande non evento dell'anno. Al di là di una sterlina più debole e di tassi di interesse più bassi nel Regno Unito, il referendum non ha avuto un impatto molto duraturo. I mercati finanziari hanno vacillato per un paio di settimane dopo il referendum, ma da allora hanno recuperato. La spesa dei consumatori resta ferma. Inaspettatamente, gli investimenti sono rimasti costanti, nonostante l'incertezza circa le future relazioni commerciali della Gran Bretagna con l'Ue. I costi della Brexit sono stati esagerati?

Non esattamente. In effetti, il Regno Unito potrebbe finire per perdere il predetto 2-3% del Pil a causa della Brexit. Ma è l'uscita dal mercato unico, non il voto iniziale di lasciare, che porterà tali perdite, e ciò potrebbe accadere per un lungo periodo. Se l'uscita si trasforma in un processo lungo dieci anni, le perdite sarebbero sostenute gradualmente nel corso di questo periodo, per un costo da parte del Regno Unito di circa lo 0,2-0,3% del Pil all'anno, in media.

Questa potrebbe essere una buona notizia per il Regno Unito. Con una valuta più debole, il paese beneficerà di un aumento della competitività delle esportazioni che potrebbero compensare tali perdite incrementali e la debolezza transitoria degli investimenti che rischia di verificarsi.

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