La bonne fortune du budget indien

CAMBRIDGE – Le gouvernement du Premier ministre indien Narendra Modi connaît une période de chance. La baisse du prix des matières premières autour du monde, et notamment du pétrole brut, vient faciliter la gestion du budget national. En outre, l’Office central des statistiques (CSO) ayant revu sa méthodologie de calcul des données du PIB, cette tâche s’en trouve encore davantage facilitée. D’après le CSO, compte tenu du changement méthodologique appliqué, la croissance annuelle de la production pour le deuxième trimestre 2014 a atteint 8,2 %, soit bien au-dessus des 5,3 % initialement prévus.

Sur la base de cette révision des chiffres du PIB, l’Inde prévoit une croissance moyenne de 7,4 % pour l’exercice clos en mars 2015. En outre, il est prévu que le pays enregistre un taux de croissance de 8 à 8,5 % lors du prochain exercice. Aucun changement budgétaire ne peut générer une accélération de croissance aussi marquée, qui plus est sans le moindre coût. Il est par conséquent raisonnable d’affirmer que le département des statistiques, habituellement peu extravagant, a coupé l’herbe sous le pied du budget de cette année.

Néanmoins, le budget du ministre des Finances Arun Jaitley constitue une réussite à plusieurs égards – notamment en ce qu’il parvient à aligner vision et mise en œuvre. Plus précisément, il poursuit la vision gouvernementale d’un agenda de croissance assouplissant les démarches d’affaires en Inde, tout en ciblant de meilleurs mécanismes de délivrance des prestations sociales.

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