Indické fiskální štěstí

CAMBRIDGE – Vláda indického premiéra Nárendry Módího může mluvit o štěstí. Díky poklesu světových cen komodit v čele se surovou ropou je správa státního rozpočtu snazší. A když nyní Centrální statistický úřad (CSO) revidoval metodologii výpočtu údajů o HDP, stal se tento úkol ještě o něco jednodušším. Podle CSO totiž roční růst výkonu dosáhl ve druhém čtvrtletí roku 2014 díky změně metodologie hodnoty 8,2%, což je oproti původnímu odhadu ve výši 5,3% výrazné zvýšení.

Na základě revidovaných údajů o HDP se očekává, že Indie zaznamená ve fiskálním roce končícím v březnu 2015 průměrný růst ve výši 7,4%. Pro příští fiskální rok se navíc odhaduje, že ekonomika poroste tempem 8-8.5%. Tak výrazného a bezplatného zrychlení růstu by žádné rozpočtové změny nemohly dosáhnout. Lze tedy směle prohlásit, že obvykle rozvážný indický statistický úřad na sebe v souvislosti s letošním rozpočtem strhl veškerou pozornost.

Rozpočet ministra financí Áruna Džaitleye však slaví úspěch hned na několika frontách – mimo jiné proto, že se mu daří skloubit vize s implementací. Konkrétně realizuje vládní vizi prorůstové agendy, která usnadňuje podnikání v Indii, a současně se zaměřuje na kvalitnější mechanismy zajišťování sociálních programů.

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