Who’s Winning the Middle East’s Cold War?

Jun 21, 2016 Robert Harvey

A key component of the sectarian competition between Shia and Sunni Islam in the Middle East is geopolitical, with Iran facing off against Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies in a struggle for regional dominance. And yet, messy as it is, the long-term outcome of this cold war is not hard to predict.

LONDON – A cold war is taking place in a very hot place. A key component of the sectarian competition between Shia and Sunni Islam in the Middle East is geopolitical, with Iran facing off against Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies in a struggle for regional dominance.

As with the original Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States, the conflict does not involve direct military confrontation between the main rivals, at least not yet. It is being fought diplomatically, ideologically, and economically – especially in the oil markets – and through proxy wars, such as the conflicts in Syria and Yemen. There are few problems in the wider Middle East that cannot be traced back to the power rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

For the moment, the Iranians seem to be riding high. Following Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decision to agree to an international deal limiting Iran’s nuclear capability to peaceful purposes, Western sanctions have been all but removed. Now that it is once again acceptable to do business with Iran, its ailing economy is set for a rebound. Meanwhile, Iran’s creeping de facto annexation of parts of Iraq – astonishingly, with American acceptance – continues because no one except the so-called “Islamic State” has the stomach to stand up to it.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 14 in all 14 Comments on this article

John Doyle Jun 28, 2016

Saudi Arabia is a failed country in waiting. It has to import everything bar oil, even sand is imported. It's doing OK right now but that is a small window. It is overpopulated., has no industry to help diversify its economy. Gharwar is pumping more water than oil, I have heard but it's still the cheapest around, for now. Its future is bleak.
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bilal h Jun 23, 2016

the war between Iraq and Iran in 1980-1988. Iranian forces were 5 times of Iraqi forces, but Iran did not win the war, i want to say that the military technology is very important than the number of army individuals...
- nima ahmady Jun 24, 2016
  
  Actually nobody won that war. Iraqis never achieved their strategic goals. After 3 years of fighting Iranians kicked Iraq out of the country. But instead of ending the war at 1982 , Iranians made a grave mistake choosing to continue the war for 5 years in hope of invading Iraq , and separating Basra region and bringing down Saddam, installing a Shia backed government in Iraq. They both made the same mistake , Iranians putting their hopes on Iraqi Shia-Arabs, and Saddam thought Iranian Arabs would support him in Khuzistan. At 1987 the war was in a stale-mate position . They could neither afford to continue nor turn the tides in their own favor. If Iran had not made that grave mistake in 1982 , it might have came out as a winner of the war. The funny thing is after more than 20 years, Iran has a high influence in Iraq and Saddam's regime has fallen.
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- nima ahmady Jun 24, 2016
  
  k
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Changiz Tavakoli Jun 22, 2016

As another comment points out this is not a Shia Sunni war, considering Turkey and Pakistan (add also Malaysia etc.) out, here is what is fundamentally missing from this analysis: for west to be able to support KSA they shall stop what they have been doing ,which is their support to destructiv fundamentalism (let's get real, human rights issue has never been but a poly when it gets to practical western diplomacy); if Saudi does that, and stops spearheading their hate ideology, then guess what: there won't be any war with Iran neither. This is a lose lose situation for Saudis.
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Paul Daley Jun 22, 2016

The background analysis is fine but the prognosis is off. Economic warfare is rarely as effective as its proponents contend, particularly when its targets are larger and more diverse states like Russia and Iran. Saudi Arabia can't play in that league. It's survived so far only because of the support it has received from Turkey, but it really needs support from the United States and the EU. That is why the nuclear deal with Iran hurt so much. The West, for its part, has a clear interest in ensuring that no one state, like Iran, comes to dominate oil policy in the Gulf, but concerns about Sunni fundamentalism in Syria and in Saudi Arabia itself have hamstrung Western policy. So, perhaps we should expect a deal: more social reform in Saudi Arabia and its surrogates (particularly the Islamic State) in return for more Western military support for Arab Sunni forces in Syria and, eventually, Iraq.
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David Morgan Jun 22, 2016

We are at the begging of the end of the oil age, as whether or not you believe in climate change (majority US detractors) it is here at a theatre near you, or simply put everywhere. Governments and societies in general are making unprecedented steps to tackle it, the Paris accord for example, so where does that leave oil? Mostly in the ground.

The world is suffering the fallout from this new Cold War; as stated Russia the US and Iran with oil prices and Europe with the refugee crises caused by the dragging on of the Syrian civil war. Arabs have been killing each other for centuries the main character in the film God of War said in the movie that a hundred years ago Arabs were killing each other in the desert with swords and now they are killing each other with guns, and nothing seems to change.

This Cold War along with Saudi support for the Wahhabi sect of Sunni Islam is a threat to international stability, and to the long-term interests of the United States. With the world scrabbling to get its hydrocarbons out of the ground as fast as possible to make a quick buck before it becomes worthless overproduction is besetting the world which is another downward pressure on oil prices.

With 99percent of current wars involving Islam the West needs to pull out of Islamic countries and prepare for the next major crises which has already begun, the movement of people around the world heading North looking for food water and safety or just a better life.
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David Hackett Jun 22, 2016

Iran is a theocracy and Saudi Arabia is a hypocrisy. The two largest Sunni nations neighbouring Iran -Turkey and Pakistan- are not at war with it. So this can't be a Sunni-Shia war. Iran can't win in the Arab world where it has lost all love, including among some Shia too, but in the long run secular politics and anti-religious politics will win on both sides.
- P. Kamath Jun 22, 2016
  
  @hackett: an excellent observation and summarisation indeed. But, people have to pay a terrible price before end results . It may take decades and centuries as in Russia and today's China. Re Tibet.
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Florian Strahberger Jun 21, 2016

"As Mohammad recently declared, the Kingdom doesn’t care about oil prices; “$30 or $70 – they are all the same to us.” "
...
well, and "The International Monetary Fund warned last month that most countries in the Middle East -- including Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain --- will run out of cash within five years if oil prices don't rise above roughly $50 per barrel. "
http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/24/news/oil-prices-production-costs/

If the whole country depends on being financed by oil, its not enough to have oil-production-costs of less then 10 USD ...

... and with this chart:
http://www.querschuesse.de/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/N64.png
is showing a clear sign of the next recession can be expected to be in place already, the oil-price is likely to go down again...
... and the pressure from the people for a change will go up.
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Mark St. Angelo Jun 21, 2016

Following its usual penchant to focus on short-term economic and/or political goals without regard to long-term consequences, in 1953 the CIA, with some assistance from the equally misguided and incompetent British MI6, foolishly decided to overthrow the democratically elected government of Iran. That led to a series of events that has caused the US and Great Britain to be the strongest supporters of the country that has unleashed on the world the Salafist religious extremists who engage in religiously inspired acts of terrorism throughout the world, including, ironically, Great Britain and the US.
What the US needs to do at this point is to acknowledge that Saudi Arabia and its state-supported Wahhabi sect of Sunni Islam is as big a threat to international stability, and to the long-term interests of the United States, as China or Russia. Then, and only then, can the US develop an appropriate course of action that it should follow with respect to Saudi Arabia and Iran.
- Alisdair Hamilton-Wilkes Jun 22, 2016
  
  @Mark
  
  I think 15-20 years ago many people at the State Dept. and CIA / MI6 etc would regard you as a crank. Now I think they would agree with you but have no idea, after decades of travel in one direction, how to turn the tanker around.
  
  The Iran nuclear deal was a start, we know from leaked diplomatic memos that the Saudis encouraged the US to strike Iran, but the old guard in Iran doesn't make it easy to switch allegiance.
  
  It is pretty clear that even with a powerful religious order at the top of it the Iranian political system is greatly more democratic than the rigid and corrupt family centric Saudi regime.
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Rik Rijs Jun 21, 2016

"The US should take steps to reassure them – while never easing up pressure to improve human rights and implement political and economic reforms.". Do I read well? What nonsense. The USA have never pushed the Saudi despots to improve their human rights. Just like the USA works with other terror regimes (e.g. Uzbekistan, worse than N-Korea) without asking any critical questions. And don't forget: "Be nice to the USA otherwise we will bring democracy to your country".
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Steve Hurst Jun 21, 2016

Repression is seldom a longterm success story.

The oil war looks like a 'who can hemorrhage' the most competion alongside a longterm shift away from fossil fuels. To assume KSA, Alaska, Russia, etc etc can reconfigure their economies pronto is optomistic and however much cash is stored in oil based sovereign wealth funds it will evaporate at alarming rates

KSA refusal to accept refugees says much, and its claim it already has a high migrant worker population so cannot cope with more migrants is simply ingenious because the curent migrant workforce can be shipped home at the drop of a hat
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