NOTA PARA EL BCE: NO IMITEN A LA RESERVA FEDERAL

El actual dilema de la Reserva Federal de EE.UU. de tener que seguir aumentando las tasas de interés a pesar de una economía afectada por los huracanes, contiene un potente mensaje para el Banco Central Europeo.

Tras un largo periodo de estabilidad monetaria a tasas de interés inusualmente bajas, esperar demasiado a elevarlas a niveles más normales y adecuados tiene peligrosas consecuencias. La Reserva Federal, después de haber llevado las tasas de interés a niveles espectacularmente bajos (en parte debido a temores equivocados a que se produjera una deflación) comenzó demasiado tarde el proceso de normalización de las mismas. Ahora debe seguir aumentando las tasas a pesar de que hay señales, como la baja en la confianza de los consumidores estadounidenses, de que la economía de EE.UU. puede estar flaqueando. EL BCE no debe cometer el mismo error.

En la economía de la zona del euro abundan los signos de advertencia acerca de una inflación inminente. De un tiempo a esta parte, el crecimiento de la oferta de dinero ha estado muy por encima de los niveles planteados como objetivo, lo que indica una situación de exceso de liquidez. La inflación anunciada para octubre, de un 2,5%, está por sobre el 2% que el BCE se ha puesto como objetivo, al igual que la última proyección de inflación para 2006 (las proyecciones actualizadas se harán públicas el primero de diciembre). El alza de los precios de la energía amenaza con traspasarse al proceso de inflación general.

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