Politics

مخاطر انهيار الشرق الأوسط

Nov 28, 2017 Dominique Moisi

باريس - في دراسته الكلاسيكية للتاريخ البولندي، يصف نورمان ديفيز بولندا في أواخر القرن الثامن عشر ب "ملعب الإله". ويمكن تطبيق هذا الوصف على لبنان اليوم. وعلى غرار بولندا في ذلك الوقت، يعاني لبنان من مجموعة من المؤسسات المحلية الجد ضعيفة وجيران جد أقوياء.

وفي الأشهر الأخيرة، وجد لبنان نفسها، أكثر من أي بلد آخر باستثناء سوريا، متورطة في تبادل الاتهامات بين إيران والمملكة العربية السعودية. لقد اكتسبت إيران نفوذا متزايدا في العراق وسوريا، بسبب الهزيمة العسكرية الفعالة لتنظيم داعش - التي استفادت منها أكثر من روسيا. وفي الوقت نفسه، يواجه منافس إيران القوي، المملكة العربية السعودية، صراعا على السلطة المحلية على عكس ما شهدناه منذ عقود، حتى في الوقت الذي تحاول فيه المملكة العربية السعودية قيادة العالم الإسلامي السني في مواجهته مع الإسلام الشيعي.

وفي الأسابيع الأخيرة، كان ولي العهد السعودي الشاب الطموح محمد بن سلمان (المعروف باسم MBS)، شديد النشاط من الناحية السياسية والاجتماعية والدبلوماسية والعسكرية، ربما ردا على تدخل إيران الفعلي. بالنسبة لمحمد بن سلمان، فاٍن الإصلاحات الهيكلية العميقة التي يتابعها هي مسألة حياة أو موت لبلده الذي عانى من ركود طويل.

To continue reading, register now.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Already have an account? Log in

Introductory Offer: Save 30% on PS Digital

Subscribe now to gain greater access to Project Syndicate – including every commentary and our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – starting at less than $5 per month.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 2 Comments on this article

j. von Hettlingen Nov 29, 2017

Dominique Moisi makes a striking analogy about Lebanon, whose geopolitical predicament reminds of Poland's situation two centuries ago. The historian, Norman Davis called Poland then, "God's playground" - a venue for rival aspirations in central and eastern Europe that prompted Napoleon to invade Russia. The Franco-Russian war, in which Napoleon was defeated in the 1812 Battle of Borodino, was not just about empires, but about influence across the territory between them.
The author says, like Poland then, Lebanon "suffers from a combination of domestic institutions that are too weak and neighbors that are too strong." The vast and vain efforts to gain a foothold in the Levant pit the two regional arch enemies, Iran and Saudi Arabia against each other. With ISIS driven out of its stronghold in Iraq and Syria, observers fear that Lebanon would be the next "God's playground," where violence could erupt between pro-Saudi Sunni and pro-Iranian Shia forces, or between Israel and Lebanon's Iran-backed militia Hezbollah.
Saudi Arabia's new crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is young, ambitious and impatient. Critics say he needs diplomatic success to cement his grip on power at home, after targeting the rich and powerful opponents. Howeve, his effort to punish Qatar for being friendly with Iran has not paid off. His war in Yemen has not defeated the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. And he has failed to plunge Lebanon into a political turmoil, by forcing its prime minister, Saad Hariri to resign, while he was in Riyadh. But once he returned to Lebanon, he "reversed" his decision.
MBS has taken on a grand project to modernise Saudi Arabia, which makes it "impossible for him show any sign of weakness" amid ongoing purge. But had MBS read Alexis de Tocqueville's 1856 classic - "The Old Regime and the Revolution" - he would have recalled the French philosopher's famous warning: “The most dangerous moment for a bad government is when it begins to reform.” The author cites one of the founding fathers of modern Italy, Camillo Benso, Count of Cavour's remark: “instead of increasing the strength of the revolutionary spirit, reduce it to impotence.” But MBS lacks the acumen to use soft power to prevail.
Iran has been "emboldened" by recent victories. Its militias have played a central role in defeating the IS militants in Syria and Iraq, boosting Iran’s regional influence and military presence in the process. Disillusioned with the US, Iranians are increasingly showing widespread public support for the hard-line view that the US cannot be trusted and that Iran is now a strong and resilient country capable of confronting its enemies and fighting a war with Saudi Arabia. The author says, there is no “Iranian Bismarck” in sight, "who can convince his country to accept a policy of limits."
As if it is not enough, Trump has sided with MBS to demonise Iran, selling arms to Saudi Arabia worth some $100 billion, condemning the missile test in September, and refusing to re-certify the nuclear deal Iran and signed with West. Both the US and Saudi Arabia feel that their immediate priority is to contain Iran. It is likely that they will start with curbing Tehran's influence in Lebanon, reigniting the sectarian flame that could spark a civil war, which could be more devastating than the one between 1975 to 1990.
The author sees a role that France can play in easing tensions, saying it does have "unique historical and cultural cards to play in Lebanon." Thanks to Emmanuel Macron's visit to Riyadh on November 9, had Hariri been able to leave Saudi Arabia. In fact France "seems indispensable in the era of Donald Trump" as a credible intermediary to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia. He says, "geopolitics, like nature, abhors a vacuum," which is being filled by Russia, as the US has lost its clout over the region. Unfortunately, both Iran and Saudi Arabia "seem determined to keep their blinders firmly in place." No doubt France and the EU will seek to prevent Lebanon from plunging into a new war. It remains to be seen whether Hariri can manage to reconcile with the Hezbollah, the country's most powerful force.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Steve Hurst Nov 28, 2017

No mention of Russian influence then
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/SI6D8Btar

مخاطر انهيار الشرق الأوسط

Introductory Offer: Save 30% on PS Digital

New Comment

Contact us

Handpicked to read next

The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

Log in/Register

مخاطر انهيار الشرق الأوسط

Introductory Offer: Save 30% on PS Digital

Handpicked to read next

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification