刻赤封锁能让普京再次伟大吗？

Nov 30, 2018 Andrei Kolesnikov

莫斯科—眼下，已有数百万人观看了刻赤海峡俄罗斯边防船拦截乌克兰拖船的视频，如此展现武力显然激发了一种自豪感，令总统普京感到满意。但对其他很多人来说，这一镜头引起了一种担忧，对乌克兰爆发全面战争的担忧。大部分俄罗斯家长和全世界家长一样，更愿意把18岁的孩子送去读书而不是打仗。

克里姆林宫的宣传向来主要渲染俄罗斯遭到袭击，而普京就是陷入敌对的西方重围的城堡上的指挥官——军事、经济乃至国际体育领域的指挥官。这一宣传在2012年普京赢得第三个总统任期后开始大量出现，2014年吞并克里米亚后更是变本加厉。

目前，这一宣传丝毫没有减弱迹象，而只要普京的围困叙事战略继续产生政治红利，这一状况也不太可能发生改变。在吞并克里米亚之前，他的支持率曾经降到历史最低点；吞并克里米亚之后，他的支持率一举超过80%。

To continue reading, register now.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

Already have an account? Log in

Subscribe to Project Syndicate

Enjoy unlimited access to the ideas and opinions of the world's leading thinkers, including weekly long reads, book reviews, topical collections, and interviews; The Year Ahead annual print magazine; the complete PS archive; and more. All for less than $9 a month.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 12 Comments on this article

Konstanzhoglo Konstanzhoglo Dec 4, 2018

After reading this article one aspect is still unclear, did Putin orchestrate sending 3 military Ukrainian vessels to go through Russian maritime waters without taking permission from Russian coastal guard in order to capture them, arrest 26 Ukrainian military troops and as a result improve his own rating?
Does author think that there was a conspiracy between Putin and Poroshenko?
- K. Bauer Dec 4, 2018
  
  As far as I read about the incident is that Ukraine said they told the Russians of the passage of their ships in advance and that the Russians prevented a retreat of the Ukrainian ships. Given that merchant ships are apparently delayed by days or weeks at the Kerch Strait by the Russians (source: BBC) you would assume that Ukraine gave them notice by 1-2 weeks. So there would be enough time to plan the "incident" by the Russian side. Have you seen the image with the tanker blocking the passage under their new bridge [1]? I mean do the Russians just keep it there as a mobile barrier or how did that happen to be there at the time of the passage of the Ukrainian ships?
  
  Of course its only guesswork at my part here. If you feel free to invest some time researching this on the Internet please share your results with sources here. [1] seems to be one start - I haven't read it.
  
  [1] https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2018/24373/kerch-strait-incident-detail-analysis/
  - Konstanzhoglo Konstanzhoglo Dec 4, 2018
    
    I'm Ukrainian, and I know that there wasn't any preliminary request for the permission from Ukranian side. If it was exist we all know about it. Ukranian military boats just asked for passage through Kerch straight when they already located near the Kerch bridge and didn't wait for permission hoping that they have all rights to pass through Kerch straight according to international maritime law. This was the point. Russians had different point of view in it. The result of this disagreement we all know.
    - K. Bauer Dec 4, 2018
      
      Thanks. So thats what they meant by they asked beforehand. But do the Russians now block the Azov sea for Ukrainians military ships? And what do you think about it - was there a political plot behind the scenes or just ignorance of some military guys?
      - Konstanzhoglo Konstanzhoglo Dec 4, 2018
        
        For the last 4 years Russians have full control over the water area of the Kerch strait. Their first task is security of the Crimean bridge. They are afraid that Ukrainian extremists will try to blow up the bridge. To avoid this they carefully examine all ships passing through Kerch strait. For this reason the time of examining ships significantly increased.
        EU and the US lose interest to Ukraine, so Ukrainian regime (i mean president, government etc) are trying by any means to attract attention EU and the US to their problems I mean annexation of Crimea and conflict in Donbass.
        Also there will be presidential election in the end of the March 2019, acting president has little chances to win. So the incident with capturing Ukrainian military boats and mariners is very useful for him in order to divert attention Ukrainians from the awful economic situation in Ukraine and cut off the rights of ordinary citizens and his political opponents to conduct the election campaign.
        
        A new reply to this comment has been posted.
      A new reply to this comment has been posted.
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Dec 3, 2018

Andrei Kolesnikov doubts whether the current standoff in the Kerch Strait between Russia and Ukraine would “make Putin great again.” Putin’s domestic approval ratings are falling to 66% last month, hit by opposition to pension reforms and falling incomes caused by Western sanctions.
In March 2014, when Putin ordered the Crimea invasion, his popularity surged to 80%, compared with 30% the year before. Maybe he is trying to pull the same trick again.
Putin is intent on blockading the Kerch Strait and preventing eastern Ukraine’s industrial ports from gaining access to the Azov Sea. He hopes to cripple Kiev economically and demonstrate Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and control over the region. Russia could also be reacting to Ukraine’s plan to build a new naval base in the Azov Sea. This in turn may all be part of a long-term strategy to push NATO out of the Black Sea region.
The author says many Russians no longer buy the “narrative that Russia is under attack” peddled by the Kremlin, with Putin “positioning himself as the commander of a fortress besieged”. Their president might escalate tensions in an “attempt to ‘remind’ Russians that they are being attacked.” But it is “unlikely to work”. After 18 years of propaganda, this “show of force” evokes little “pride” but more “fear”. They dread an all out war in Ukraine as a distraction from Putin’s failures to improve the economic outlook. Western sanctions are not the only reason for their grievances.
Russia’s economy is stalling, and boosting growth is impossible without deep structural reforms. But Putin seems have no appetite for them. The “state-capitalist model has led to weak competition and declining incentives for private investment and entrepreneurship,” with state-controlled enterprises accounting for almost three-quarters of Russia’s GDP. Foreign investors have been barred from more than 40 industries designated “critical for national security”. This ban has reduced Russia’s access to financial markets and, more critical, to new technologies.
The author says a recent poll by the Levada Center asked “20-year-old Russians to identify the country they view as a model for others, they chose Germany, followed by China and Putin’s favorite villain, the United States. While these young people support Russian greatness, they define greatness not only in military terms, but also on the basis of economic prosperity and social progress.” Given the vast amounts of natural resources, they deserve a bright future.
Indeed, many young people view the nationalist regime as outdated, and Putin himself as an obstacle to the changes they desire. They question whether Putin’s assertive foreign policy, which won him much domestic support in the past, is worth the price, including the actual cost of Russia’s military adventures in Syria and Ukraine, and the impact of increasing economic and political isolation from the West.
The author says “Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, may also benefit politically from escalating tensions as he seeks to lift his dismal approval ratings ahead of his reelection bid in March,” that he is tipped to lose. Critics suggest Poroshenko’s emphasis on the endangered security in Ukraine, and the imposition of martial law, could compromise the democratic process, saying his re-election hope rested on nationalistm – defending Ukraine militarily against Russian aggression.
If Putin hoped to expose Western divisions and exploit Trump’s ambivalence, he may be disappointed. At the sidelines of the G20 in Buenos Aires two days ago, Putin put on a brave face after Trump abruptly called off the much-awaited sit-down with him, blaming it on US politics and anti-Russia hysteria. But Trump’s snub was a clear message that resonated with world leaders, who denounced Russia’s aggression on Ukraine with one voice.
Critics say the Kerch standoff might stiffen Trump’s support for NATO in general and Ukraine (an aspiring Nato member) in particular, highlighting the threat Putin poses to the Baltic, the Balkans, Syria etc. The crisis could be used to draw the US and Europe closer together at a time of Transatlantic rifts. The author says, despite Putin’s glorification of Stalin’s victory in WW II, Russia today lacks “not only the resources, but also the will to let our young people die fighting another country’s young people. Indeed, the last thing Russians want is to repeat a war that left 27 million of their countrymen dead.”
- Gruust Gruust Feb 26, 2019
  
  "caused by western sanctions". How do you know? AFAIK he is following the same neoliberal policies as the US.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Alex Tuz Dec 2, 2018

Just another biased article aimed at confirming Western myths about Russia. By letting only one-sised articles to be published on mass media resources like PS, the Americans please their ears but fail to understand the essense.

"For some Russians, this show of force undoubtedly aroused a sense of pride" - what is wrong with the pride that your coast guard actually perform their duties and stop military ships entering your waters?

"sense of pride...much to President Vladimir Putin’s pleasure" - that is an opinion of an aroused mind, not a fact.

"Most Russian parents, like parents everywhere, would prefer to send their 18-year-old children to study, not to fight." - obvious. But what one is going to do if the US finally brings the full-blown war to the Russian soil by using it's puppy ultra right nationalists in Ukraine? Everyone would prefer not to have a war, but if the enemy comes, you kinda have to.

"The narrative that Russia is under attack has long dominated Kremlin propaganda" - that sentence is meant to please the western ear as it meant to show who is the good and who is the bad guy out there. But, the Russian history is one big history of siege: from tatars to Napoleon to Nazi Germany and then creeping expansion of NATO. It is in the Russian gene to expect the attack, as Russia had to defend itself from (primarily) Western predators so many times in its history. To call it "Putin's propaganda" is to ignote the Russian history and to reduce the Russian identity to layman cliche.

"hostile West ...is a pgopaganda". Yes, the US and its European followers just introduced a myriad of agressive sanctions that affect the entire Russian population. Men loose jobs, women go to prostitution. Yet according it is just a mirage.

"Putin was supposed to improve Russians’ standard of living" - well, it's kinda hard to do when your country is being hit by the hammer of sanctions each day. The main goal of sanctions was to raise Russian people's discontent and by this affect the Russian elections. Yet the plan didn't work out.

"the government announced deeply unpopular pension reforms, which included an increase in the retirement age." - an increase in the retirement age has nothing to do with current economic issues. Mr. Kolsenikov, please familirize yourself with basic economics: even the prosperous countries raise their retirement age as there is a shift in life expectancy and fertility wordwide.

"Putin may well have decided that it is time to “remind” Russians that they are under attack. " - and ordered Ukrainian military ships to enter Russian waters? :D

"To be clear, Ukraine is not attacking Russia." - of course not attacking, just provoking, to get some more aid and improve dismal rating of Proposhenko.

"mythologized version of World War II" - that is an insult to any Russian citizen. Whenever monuments to 600,000 Soviet soldiers who died for liberating Poland, for example, are being destroyed, Russia issues a note condeming it. Whenever Britain and the US (who combined lost 50 times less than USSR) claim that they won WW2, and Russia says "excuse me?". That pro-American and anti-truth "experts" like Mr. Kolesnikov try to call such cases of defending the honor of the Soviet soldiers who liberated the world as "mythologization" is the problem of such experts, not Russians or Putin.

"veneration of Stalin" where is he venerated? Even at the Russian state tv channels recently there were a myriad of tv programs that not just exposed issues with Stalin's policies, but also added some things that didn't really happen. Please no fake news, Mr. Kolesnikov.

"The grand military parade commemorating the anniversary of the end of the Siege of Leningrad, planned for January 29 in St. Petersburg, may inspire patriotism, but it will in no way reflect the real drama of the city’s starving inhabitants" - actually go there and speak to people. They literally crying and discussing endless stories of starving inhabitants. Why are you trying to present it the wrong way?

"Putin’s nationalist appeals" read his speeches. Putin at least 20 times mentioned in his speeches that Russia shares the same values with Europe and we should unite. It is only the US that is against it, and EU is too weak to resist the US. Painting Putin to be a nationalist has an appeal in the West, and so in order to get published people like Mr. Kolesnikov need to appeal to the reader.

"they define greatness not only in military terms, but also on the basis of economic prosperity and social progress." - are we supposed to raise our eyebrows here?

"“we can repeat”. But the truth is that we cannot." - you cannot, but the Russian people can. If enemy will come to the Russian land we the Russian will repeat the history and kick the invader out. Yes, we would rather for the invader not to come, as the human loss for sure will be enormous. Yes, we would rather not fight another country’s young people send to our land. But there is no alternative to truth, no altetnative to defending the Motherland.
- K. Bauer Dec 3, 2018
  
  Its good to see different opinions on PS (even if you don't agree with them).
  However, regarding "raising eyebrows" please think about your sentence:
  "Whenever monuments to 600,000 Soviet soldiers who died for liberating Poland, for example, are being destroyed, Russia issues a note condeming it."
  Remember the Hitler–Stalin Pact that defined how Germany and Russia would divide Poland between them (which they did) and the annexation (shifting) of Polish territory after WWII on behalf of the Soviet Union. There is no question - the red army (a big part Ukrainians by the way) did of course drove the Nazis out but it was not all peace and glory for the polish people after WWII.
  
  So in short: The soviet union annexed Poland together with Germany, then lost the territory to Germany, then recaptured it and at the end moved the whole state westwards so it could (re-)gain the east part of it.
  
  PS: In my opinion there is nothing wrong in the condemnation of the removal of the monuments. We all need to remember the horrors of war. Russia's annexation of Crimea is a stark reminder of why we need to remember. People have not learned the lessons of the past - so much is clear.
  - Alex Tuz Dec 3, 2018
    
    Please think about your sentence: "There is no question - the red army (a big part Ukrainians by the way) did of course drove the Nazis out but it was not all peace and glory for the polish people after WWII. "
    
    We are talking about WWII and its supposed "mythologization", not what followed after the war, which is a completely separate topic of its own we can discuss. You mix the two.
    
    "a big part Ukrainians by the way" - there is no sense of separating Ukrainians. They and Russians are the same.
    
    Regarding "annexation of Poland": Please read some more history. Poland took over the Russian land during the Bolshevik-Polish war of 1919-1921, and so in 1939 the USSR just got this land back. Also, USSR returned what is now Western Ukraine, which Poland stole from Russia when it was occupied by Mongols. People living there called themselves Russians and were demanding independence from Poland and then Austro-Hungarian Empire for centuries, only to be brutally supressed. First concetration camps were in fact camps organized by Austro-Hungaria to supress the Russian protests in what is now Western Ukraine in the early XX century (see Thalerhof camp). So the Russian people of Galicia (there was no such word as Ukrainian at the time) had long been fighting for their freeedom to rejoin their homeland Russia. This return was long-awaited and in fact was the liberation. The West is just reluctant to admit that pro-Russian protest could be liberating, only anti-Russian can.
    
    So in short: you don't know the topic comment about.
    
    PS: The vote of the Crimean people to ruturn home is the greatest example of democracry of our time, as Crimeans were even willing to suffer from sanctions of the aggressive West only to express their opinion (Khushev gave out those people as a gift in 1954, if you hate "dictators" you shoud hate this decision).
    - K. Bauer Dec 4, 2018
      
      Thank you Alexey for your comment. Yes, I still stand by the sentence. At least from my part I talk about history and what it (should) mean to us. The time didn't start with WWII and it didn't ended thereafter.
      You just turned your tone regarding the polish by 180° - first you describe Soviets as the Liberators of Poland and they as being ungrateful (that was what I commented on) and now you basically say the Polish deserved to be punished by Russia.
      
      Russia did not become the largest nation on earth because it was attacked so often. Russia attacked and annexed the land earlier (see Partitions of Poland). It also conquered Crimea from the Ottoman Empire in 1783 and displaced the people living there. And whether people are the same or not is up to them. Ukrainians have the right to their own country. They have the right to be left in peace (Russia violates this right). By stating that Russians and Ukrainians are the same you fabricate a pretense for Russia to annex Ukraine.
      
      If you want, you can always find some pretense for fighting your neighbor. History tells us that there was always a war going on based on a tit-for-tat or just based on the greed of (mainly aristocratic) people. There are no "good guys" in history. When do you stop? When do you accept the boundaries and start living in peace with your neighbor?
      
      That's what I like at the EU - it forces Politicians (they are some special bunch of characters) to work together and limits the possibility of war. But its not a given - there are always people wanting for war...
      - Alex Tuz Dec 4, 2018
        
        "first you describe Soviets as the Liberators of Poland and they as being ungrateful (that was what I commented on)" - I still fail to see why Poland should be ungrateful for the liberation. Probably, the USSR shouldn't have liberated Poland from nazis so the effect of Russian involvement could be clearer.
        
        "Polish deserved to be punished by Russia." - I didn't ever say that. Russia didn't punish Poland. It just returned what Poland stole and then liberated it from the nazis.
        
        "Russia did not become the largest nation on earth because it was attacked so often." - exactly because of that. I am currently writing a book for Westerns who know so little about Russia on that. Russia expanded primarily through 3 channels: 1) endless petitions to join Russia by smaller nations (land that was acquired that way is Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Latvia with Estonia (yes, there were trying to escape Poland))
        2) exploration of land, but unlike Western acquisition of the North America, South America, Australia and many other parts of the world, which was accompanied by brutal genocide of local population, Russia acquired Siberian tribes peacuefully as it gave unprecenteted freedoms and protection
        3) chasing of an invader to his capital (land that was acquired through that is Tatarstan, Lithuania, Poland, Azerbaijan, Crimea. From just Crimean territory, there were more than 300 raids to the Russian tettitory over five centuries, including siege of Moscow.
        
        "They have the right to be left in peace (Russia violates this right)" - yes, Ukrainians have a right to be left in peace. But the US violates this right by pushing nationalistic ideology and killing any pro-Russian activits using neo-nazis puppies. Just leave Ukraine alone!
        
        "By stating that Russians and Ukrainians are the same you fabricate a pretense for Russia to annex Ukraine." - you know nothing about it. I have been living in Russia for more than 30 years and have never met a single person who didn't have at least some Ukrainian blood. The same is in Ukraine, where half of my Russian relatives went to live. It is US and its puppy EU who would like to spread hatred, erect walls and separate us.
        
        "If you want, you can always find some pretense for fighting your neighbor" - especially if that neignbor attacks you, as was the case throuout history when Europe always attacked Russia (knoghts, Sweden, Napoleon, Germany etc).
        
        "When do you stop?" -when would Russia stop defend itself? When invaders would stap attacking it.
        
        "When do you accept the boundaries and start living in peace with your neighbor?" - when does the US accept boundaries of Ukraine and stop interfering into its affairs to spread nationalistic hatred? You should ask the US.
        
        "That's what I like at the EU - it forces Politicians (they are some special bunch of characters) to work together and limits the possibility of war. But its not a given - there are always people wanting for war..." - the US always wants more war and brings it to the European continent. EU politicians are happy to assist.
        
        A new reply to this comment has been posted.
      A new reply to this comment has been posted.
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/jrCJMaAzh

刻赤封锁能让普京再次伟大吗？

Subscribe to Project Syndicate

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

Log in/Register

刻赤封锁能让普京再次伟大吗？

Subscribe to Project Syndicate

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification