自谋生路的新兴市场

发自纽约——欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)最近在与欧洲央行管理委员会开会后发表的声明和美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦首次国会听证中的言论极为相似——两者都宣称自己的政策决策只会考虑国内状况。换言之,那些新兴市场国家虽然承受了来自发达经济体货币政策的极大溢出效应,但也只能自谋生路了。

其实新兴国家政府要就意识到了这一点,只是现在才最终得到确认而已。2010年时——就在美联储宣布进行第三轮量化宽松政策之后——巴西财政部长吉多·曼特加(Guido Mantega)就指责发达经济体发动了一场全球性“货币战争”。毕竟发达国家的政策正驱使大量短期资本流入各大新兴市场国家,导致后者汇率上涨并削弱其出口竞争力——巴西总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫最后将这一现场称之为“资本海啸”。

最近发达经济体退出货币刺激政策所造成的影响也同样严重。自去年五月美联储宣布有意缩减资产收购规模以来,新兴市场国家的资金获取渠道不断缩窄,融资成本日渐上升——这对那些拥有大额经常帐户赤字并因此依赖国际融资的国家来说尤为痛苦。对此印度储备银行行长拉古兰·拉贾(Raghuram Rajan)回应说发达国家的政策相当“自私”,并宣称“国际货币合作体系已经崩溃。”

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