Captured Islamic State militants in Mosul Martyn Aim/Getty Images

EI después de Mosul

RAMALLAH – La semana pasada, el primer ministro iraquí Haider al-Abadi declaró la expulsión de Estado Islámico (EI) de Mosul, la ciudad donde hace tres años la banda anunció su autoproclamado califato. Se prevé que en breve también perderá Raqqa, su último bastión, que ya comienza a escapársele de las manos. Pero sería un error suponer que estas derrotas equivalen a la desaparición de EI o de bandas extremistas violentas similares.

Estos grupos dependen de su capacidad de atraer a sus filas a personas jóvenes, dando a individuos frustrados un sentido de misión con una profunda carga ideológica. Algo en lo que EI se mostró muy capaz, al convocar combatientes venidos de todo el mundo dispuestos a morir por su causa (la creación de un califato con ambiciones de expansión) e inspirar a muchos más a la realización de atentados en sus países de origen.

Recapturar territorios dominados por EI (en particular las “capitales” del autoproclamado califato) contribuye en gran medida a debilitarlo, al enviar el mensaje de que en los hechos, la banda no puede convertir su ideología religiosa en una fuerza geopolítica real. Según cálculos de la inteligencia estadounidense, el pasado septiembre el flujo de reclutas extranjeros que cruzaron de Turquía a Siria para unirse a EI y otros grupos se redujo de un pico de 2000 mensuales a tan sólo 50.

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