Captured Islamic State militants in Mosul Martyn Aim/Getty Images

L’Etat islamique après Mosul

RAMALLAH – La semaine dernière, le Premier ministre irakien Haider al-Abadi a déclaré que l'Etat islamique (ISIS) avait été chassé de Mossoul, la ville où le groupe a annoncé pour la première fois son prétendu califat il y a trois ans. L’ISIS devrait bientôt perdre également Raqqa, son dernier bastion, où son emprise est déjà de plus en plus faible. Mais ce serait une erreur de croire que ces défaites signeront la disparition de l’Etat islamique ou des groupes extrémistes violents similaires.

Un groupe comme l’ISIS repose sur sa capacité à attirer des jeunes à rejoindre ses rangs, en offrant à des individus frustrés une idée de but reposant sur une forte charge idéologique. Et l’ISIS a démontré son habileté à faire exactement cela, attirant des combattants de partout dans le monde qui sont prêts à mourir pour sa cause – créer un califat unique couvrant l’ensemble du monde arabe – et inspirant beaucoup d'autres à mener des attaques dans leur pays d'origine.

Reprendre le territoire occupé par l’ISIS – en particulier les villes qui ont servi de « capitales » de leur califat autoproclamé – contribue grandement à son affaiblissement, en envoyant le message que le groupe ne peut pas réellement traduire son idéologie religieuse en une véritable force géopolitique. En effet, des estimations des services de renseignement américains indiquent que, en septembre dernier, le flux de recrues étrangères passant par la Turquie pour rejoindre des groupes comme l’ISIS en Syrie avait chuté d'un maximum historique de 2000 par mois à seulement 50.

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