Captured Islamic State militants in Mosul Martyn Aim/Getty Images

摩苏尔之后的伊斯兰国

拉马拉——上周,伊拉克总理阿巴迪宣布伊斯兰国已经被赶出摩苏尔,三年前,该组织正是在摩苏尔宣布成立自封的哈里发国。不久后,伊斯兰国很可能失去最后的据点拉卡,它对拉卡的控制力已经开始大幅下滑。但想当然认为这些失败将导致伊斯兰国或同类暴力极端组织覆灭却是错误的。

伊斯兰国这样的组织有赖于通过为心灰意冷的人提供意识形态上的目标感吸引年轻人加入其队伍。而事实证明伊斯兰国精于此道,从世界各地吸引心甘情愿为其事业献身的战士——目的是建立一个阿拉伯世界统一的哈里发国家——并鼓励更多年轻人恐怖袭击自己的祖国。

重新夺回伊斯兰国所占据的领土——尤其是夺回曾作为其自封哈里发国“首都”的这座城市——对削弱恐怖组织大有帮助,夺回摩苏尔向世界宣告,恐怖组织不能在事实上将其宗教意识形态转化为真正的地缘政治力量。而且事实上,据美国情报部门的估测显示 ,截至去年9月,从土耳其流向叙利亚加入伊斯兰国等组织的国外招募者数量已经从高峰时期的每月2,000人减少到区区50人左右。

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