India Economy Narinder Nanu/Stringer

Investir dans un monde dont les frontières se ferment

CAMBRIDGE – Les investisseurs, comme les astronomes et les anthropologues, s’appuient sur des modèles intellectuels pour interpréter un monde compliqué, pour guider leurs choix dans le court terme et fixer les priorités de leurs investigations à plus long terme. Mais de temps à autre une aberration nous contraint à réévaluer ce que nous pensions savoir. Cela peut être un trou noir. Cela peut être un fossile aux caractéristiques improbables. Cela peut être une révolte politique, comme le référendum au Royaume-Uni qui a décidé du Brexit ou l’élection de Donald Trump à la présidence des États-Unis.

Tandis qu’approche l’année fatidique, les marchés mondiaux, pris de vertige, vont de record en record. Mais les investisseurs ne devraient pas se laisser griser. En 2017, il leur faudra réévaluer le fonctionnement de l’économie mondiale et revoir en conséquence leurs estimations pour tout ce qui ressemble à une action ou à une obligation. Car si certains fondamentaux du marché demeurent, beaucoup d’autres ont changé, indubitablement.

Voici presque vingt ans que la plupart des investisseurs acceptent le consensus prévalant chez les économistes et les politologues d’un monde qui se rétrécit parce qu’il est de plus en plus intégré. Avec l’essor de la Chine et de l’Inde, un tiers de la population mondiale a fait irruption dans l’économie globale, y apportant autant de travailleurs et de consommateurs. Concomitamment, les nouvelles technologies donnaient accès aux communications bon marché, à la robotique de pointe et aux analyses de données de plus en plus fines, qui permettaient aux entreprises de réduire leurs stocks en intégrant les chaînes logistiques.

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