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Is India’s Economy Overhyped?

While China is grappling with an economic slowdown, India’s economy is thriving, with a booming stock market and 7-8% annual growth. But despite India’s significant advantages over other major economies, there are compelling reasons to believe that its growth prospects are being overstated.

NEW YORK – Perhaps no phrase better captures the changing views of financial markets and the news media regarding the world’s two largest developing economies than the title of a 2023 S&P report: “China slows, India grows.”

While China is grappling with an economic slowdown, India appears to be thriving. The Indian stock market is booming, with the number of trading accounts registered with its National Stock Exchange skyrocketing from 41 million in 2019 to 140 million in 2023. Moreover, as Western companies exit China, India is emerging as a leading alternative. With an annual growth of 7-8%, it is widely expected to become the world’s third-largest economy by the end of this decade.

But could India really overtake China and the United States to become the world’s largest economy by the end of this century, as some predict? Or is its economic boom overhyped?