Chine : comment réagir au ralentissement ?

PEKIN – Le PIB annuel de la Chine a baissé de 8,1 % au premier trimestre 2012 à 7,6 % au deuxième, son niveau le plus faible depuis le deuxième trimestre 2009. L’annonce de ce chiffre a peut-être dissipé les craintes d’un atterrissage difficile pour la Chine, mais nombre d’observateurs ont néanmoins estimé que la Chine doit stimuler son économie pour garantir les 8 % de croissance annuelle.

Le gouvernement chinois a resserré sa politique monétaire depuis le début 2010 pour contenir l’inflation et les bulles immobilières. Cela s’est traduit par une baisse de l’inflation –  2,2 % en juin, le plus bas depuis 29 mois – et par une stabilisation, et même un modeste fléchissement des prix de l’immobilier, alors que le Bureau National des Statistiques ne publie malheureusement plus de chiffre officiel pour ce secteur.

Ce ralentissement de la croissance chinoise traduit, jusqu’à un certain point, le succès des efforts du gouvernement pour freiner la bulle immobilière, ainsi que celui d’autres politiques officielles destinées à rééquilibrer l’économie. L’investissement dans le développement immobilier, qui représente directement plus de 10% du PIB, a chuté de 16,3 points au cours du premier semestre 2012. Cela a entrainé un ralentissement des investissements dans nombre d’industries corollaires, comme les matériaux de construction, l’ameublement et l’électroménager, provoquant une chute de la croissance annuelle des investissements en immobilisations de 25,6% à 20,4%.

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