没有希望的失业

伯克利—不管从商业周期的角度讲眼下全球经济是多么困难,这只是看待世界的一个视角。从全球寿命预期、世界总财富、技术总水平、新兴国家增长前景和全球收入分配看,情况相当强劲,而在其他领域——比如全球变暖和国内收入比平等及其对各国社会稳定的影响——则看起来相当糟糕。

即便从商业周期角度看,如今的情况也比过去好得多了。想想大萧条吧,它给市场经济造成了多大的冲击,由于长期失业的重压,市场经济根本无法自力更生走向复苏。

但是,尽管我们今天还没有走到这般田地,却也不能说大萧条跟我们一点关系都没有,因为有个状况可能性越来越大了——长期失业将在未来两年对复苏造成类似大萧条的影响。

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