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Globalizzazione allo stremo

LONDRA – L’elezione di Donald Trump alla presidenza degli Stati Uniti significa che la globalizzazione è morta, oppure parlare di estinzione del processo è decisamente esagerato? Se la globalizzazione è solo in parte fuori combattimento, ma non allo stadio terminale, dobbiamo comunque preoccuparci? Quanto peso avrà sull’economia globale il rallentamento della crescita del commercio che si respira nell’aria?

La crescita del commercio mondiale rallenterebbe anche senza Trump al potere. Il suo andamento, che aveva già registrato un periodo fiacco nel primo trimestre del 2016, ha mostrato un calo di quasi l’1% nel secondo, portandosi in linea con un trend che dal 2010 vede il commercio globale crescere di appena il 2% annuo. Unitamente al fatto che la produzione mondiale di beni e servizi è cresciuta di oltre il 3%, questo significa che il rapporto tra commercio e Pil è diminuito, invertendo così la sua direzione di marcia rispetto al passato.     

Questa allarmante traiettoria, affermano gli esperti di globalizzazione, riflette una rinascita del protezionismo che trova riscontro nella diffusa opposizione al TPP, il partenariato trans-pacifico, e al TTIP, il trattato transatlantico sul commercio e gli investimenti, e nella recente vittoria elettorale di Trump. In altre parole, essa significa che i benefici dell’apertura e della specializzazione stanno andando in fumo.    

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