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Est-ce la fin de la mondialisation ?

LONDRES – L'élection de Donald Trump signifie-t-elle que c'en est fini de la mondialisation, ou est-ce une exagération que de le dire ? Est-elle seulement en panne, et en cas y a-t-il lieu de s'inquiéter ? Pour l'économie mondiale, quelles seront les répercussions du ralentissement de la croissance du commerce qui s'annonce ?

La croissance du commerce mondial fléchirait même sans Trump. Elle était déjà pratiquement nulle au premier trimestre 2016 et elle a chuté de presque 1% au cours du deuxième trimestre. C'est la continuation d'une tendance antérieure : entre 2010 et il y a seulement quelques mois, le commerce mondial était en croissance de presque 2% par an. Ce fait, ainsi que la hausse supérieure à 3% de la production des biens et de l'offre de services faisait que le taux du volume du commerce rapporté au PIB était en nette hausse, alors qu'il diminue maintenant.

Pour les experts de la mondialisation, cette évolution inquiétante traduit la résurgence du protectionnisme qui se manifeste dans l'hostilité au Partenariat transpacifique (PTP) et au Partenariat transatlantique de commerce et d'investissement (TTIP), ainsi que dernièrement par l'élection de Trump. Autrement dit, on ne tire pas profit des bénéfices qu'auraient pu apporter l'ouverture des frontières et la mondialisation.

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