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全球化的最后关头

伦敦—唐纳德·特朗普当选为美国总统是否意味着全球化已死?还是关于全球化进程行将就木的报道大大夸张了?如果全球化只是部分受阻,而不是病入膏肓,我们还需要担心吗?从目前看,贸易增长即将转衰,这对全球经济会造成多大的影响?

即使特朗普不当总统,世界贸易增长也会放缓。其增长在2016年一季度已经降低,二季度更是衰退了近1%。这是此前趋势的延续:2010年,全球贸易平均年增长率只有2%。再加上世界商品和服务产量增长率一直高于3%这一事实,这意味着贸易-GDP之比一直在下降,与前几年稳步上升之势截然相反。

全球化专家表示,这一令人不安的趋势反映了保护主义的复兴。跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(TPP)和跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系(TTIP)所引起的群众反对以及刚刚发生的特朗普胜选都是明证。这意味着开放和专业化的收益正在被浪费。

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