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التغيير الكبير في سوق العمل

Dec 6, 2021 J. Bradford DeLong

بيركلي- ستفقد 13٪ من الوظائف منخفضة الأجر في ألمانيا جدواها إذا أدرك العمال مدى جودة خياراتهم الخارجية. وهذا هو الاستنتاج الذي توصلت إليه الورقة البحثية التي أعدها مؤخرًا بنجامين شوفر، زميلي هنا في جامعة كاليفورنيا، بيركلي، والمؤلفين المشاركين معه، سيمون جاغر، وكريستوفر روث، ونينا روسيل.

وأشاروا في ملاحظة لهم أنه"عند مقارنة الخيارات الخارجية الشخصية للعمال بمقاييس موضوعية في ما يتعلق بمكافأة الأجور من خلال بيانات صاحب العمل والموظف المتطابقة فيما بينها" يعتقد العديد من العمال خطئاً أن أجورهم الحالية تمثل سوق العمل الخارجي- العمال الذين يتلقون أجورا منخفضة انخفاضا موضوعيا (وأصحاب الأجور المرتفعة) يبالغون في التشاؤم (يبالغون في التفاؤل) بشأن خياراتهم الخارجية".

وبلغة واضحة، المعنى هو أنه إذ أدى شيئ معين إلى زعزعة المعتقدات الخاطئة للعمال ذوي الأجور المنخفضة حول مدى ضعف خياراتهم الخارجية، فإن الظروف المهنية وسوق العمل ستتغير بصورة أساسية. ومن المؤكد أن نفس الرؤية الأساسية تنطبق أيضًا على الولايات المتحدة، بل أكثر من ذلك، لأن الحد الأدنى الفيدرالي للأجور في الولايات المتحدة أقل بكثير من نظيره في ألمانيا فيما يتعلق بمتوسط الإنتاجية.

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J. Bradford DeLong

Writing for PS since 2002
239 Commentaries

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

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Joe Ryan Dec 12, 2021

In industrialized regions, the "jobs = well-being" presumption is being gnawed at from both sides: on the side of supply of jobs by automation and on the side of demand for jobs by people being increasingly willing and able to be more discriminating about job choices. Technology is a factor on both sides.

One implication is that government policy needs to look beyond "jobs" per se. A type of complementary government policy is making outlays to ensure wide availability of basic necessities as entitlements, rather than as something bought using pay from a job.

In the U.S., Medicare would be an example, except of course for its availability being limited. So, the policy issue is to expand its availability.

This point is not new: Medicare is over 50 years old and efforts to expand or complement it (NB: Obamacare) are ongoing. Ditto for other examples: Prof. DeLong mentions child care in the U.S.

But still the point may not be obvious. Prof. DeLong's essay started off in the direction of making it but towards the end seems to mix it with government policy to promote business or purchasing power in general.

To repeat, this (traditional keynesianism) is, by itself, not sufficient, given that its linkage to well-being is limited by shortcomings in provision of public goods and "good jobs." Some outlays need to be more specific, as does Prof. DeLong's conclusion that "workers and entrepreneurs need a great deal more support."
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