全球能源现实主义

马德里—能源已成为全球决策的焦点。油价下跌占据了世界媒体头条,与此同时,美国总统奥巴马和中国国家主席习近平签署了一项重要的气候协议,而10月的欧洲理事会决定也可能表明欧盟朝着严肃的能源政策做出了真正的进步。这一趋势应该在明年继续保持,在12月的巴黎联合国气候变化会议(COP21)上达到高潮。

但是,要建立一个全球能源体系、在碳中性的约束下满足日益增长的需求,我们必须避免破坏了过去的努力的陷阱。特别是,我们必须在理想与现实之间、公共和死人部门之间以及长期与短期考虑之间达到合适的平衡。最关键的是,我们必须信守我们的承诺。

在理想与现实方面,欧盟也许是方针失衡的最佳范例。欧洲总是随心所欲而不理性思考,这制约了有效行动。一些欧盟成员国下意识地拒绝核电导致煤炭使用量激增。可再生能源激起了一种传教士般的狂热,丝毫不考虑效率或可行性问题。而欧盟的“20/20/20目标”——到2020年削减20%温室气体排放、使用20%可再生能源、提高20%能源效率——更多地只是一个口号而不是政策。

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