roubini178_Spencer PlattGetty Images_stockmarket Spencer Platt/Getty Images

A Mild Global Contraction Is Coming

While a severe hurricane for the global economy looks less likely than a few months ago, we are still likely to encounter a tropical storm that could cause significant damage. Much will depend on how major central banks confront the trilemma of simultaneously maintaining price, growth, and financial stability.

NEW YORK – There are currently four scenarios for the global economic outlook. Three of these entail potentially serious risks with far-reaching implications for markets.