Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and German Chancellor Angela Merkel

Politics

الذيل الشعبوي يهز الكلب الألماني

Nov 30, 2017 Sławomir Sierakowski

وارصو – الخاسران الكبيران فى الانتخابات الفيدرالية الألمانية فى سبتمبر/أيلول من العام الماضى فرنسي ولوكسمبورجي: الرئيس الفرنسى ايمانويل ماكرون ورئيس المفوضية الأوروبية جان كلود جونكر. ولكل منهما خطته الخاصة لإصلاح الاتحاد الأوروبي، وكلاهما يتصور اندماجا أعمق للاتحاد، بدءا من منطقة اليورو.

من جانبه دعا جونكر جميع الدول الأعضاء غير الأعضاء فى منطقة اليورو إلى اعتماد العملة الموحدة، واقترح حتى وضع خارطة طريق لهم للقيام بذلك. وفي الوقت نفسه، دعا ماكرون إلى جعل منطقة اليورو أكثر عمقا من حيث ميزانيتها المشتركة، والتي ستمول جزئيا، من خلال ضريبة المعاملات المالية على نطاق الاتحاد الأوروبي (حاليا فقط فرنسا والمملكة المتحدة تفرض ضريبة القيمة المضافة). كما دعا إلى تعيين وزير مالية لمنطقة اليورو، واتخاذ اجراءات لتنسيق ضرائب الشركات والحد الأدنى للأجور بين الدول الأعضاء.

وتتطلب خطط جونكر وماكرون التعاون الألماني. ومع ذلك، فإن ألمانيا لا ترى بحماس كبير الإصلاحات الاقتصادية على مستوى الاتحاد الأوروبي، لأنها تستفيد من الوضع الراهن. إن وجود سياسة نقدية مشتركة في غياب سياسة مالية مشتركة يخلق اختلالا يعمل بصدق لصالح ألمانيا. ولأن ألمانيا تضم أكبر اقتصاد في منطقة اليورو، وتتقاسم نفس العملة مع الدول الأعضاء الأكثر فقرا، فإنها تتمتع بدفعة مصطنعة لتصدير القدرة على المنافسة.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

K. Bauer Jan 22, 2018

Sorry but Hans Kundnani from the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) from Washington DC got that quite wrong - the EU question had little impact on the people here in Germany. The main thing was the refugee crisis. Here the FDP (for the first time) and the AfD (as always) painted them self as an Alternative for the "Refugees Welcome" politics of CDU/SPD. That's what made the difference.
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j. von Hettlingen Dec 2, 2017

Sławomir Sierakowski says Germany, as Europe's economic powerhouse and leader of the EU, has to take the Visegrád countries (V4) - the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland - seriously and appease their populist leaderships. With 64 million people, the V4 group is posturing for domestic consumption and has become a force to be reckoned with.
The author says there are only two European leaders who really have the EU best interests at heart - Jean-Claude Juncker and Emmanuel Macron - both have called for a closer union and reforming the eurozone. He says Germany under Angela Merkel "has little enthusiasm for EU-level economic reforms, because it benefits from the status quo." As the paymaster, Germany is sceptical of Juncker's proposal of letting all "non-euro" countries to adopt the single currency unconditionally. Germans are equally wary of endorsing a "common budget" financed by an EU-wide transactions tax, fearing that the funds could be misappropriated.
Germany is said to benefit from an "imbalance as a result of a "common monetary policy in the absence of a common fiscal policy." Being the eurozone’s largest economy, it "shares a currency with poorer member states, and "enjoys an artificial boost to export competitiveness." At the same time Germany exports more than it imports, creating a situation in which EU countries, "particularly in the poorer south," cannot improve their trade deficits.
The author says while Merkel is holding talks with the Social Democrats to form another grand-coalition party, the European project is on the back burner. As many Germans had voted for the "Euroskeptic FDP and the far-right Alternative für Deutchland (AfD), rather than the CDU and SPD," they sent a message that they have little appetite for Macron’s plan to reform the eurozone. Should the SPD support "EU-level reforms," it would be "committing political suicide."
According to the author, the fate of the European Union lies not in "Western Europe, but in the east." He says, while Merkel "weighs Macron’s proposals," she also has her mind set on Germany’s "primary economic partner" - the V4 group - in Central and Eastern Europe. Germany "has managed to assert its economic dominance across the region," and become dependent on its increasingly "populist eastern neighbors." No where in Europe would German businesses be able to find the "same ideal combination of low-cost labor, a well-educated workforce, high rates of economic growth, geographic proximity, and even political stability."
The nationalist governments of the V4 group have also seized on Brexit as a precedent-setting opportunity to change their own relationship with Brussels. Appearing to stand up to Brussels stirs up nationalist rhetoric in the region, whose memories of superpower domination still linger. The 2004 eastward enlargement had made them young EU members. In reality they are too wedded to the EU’s benefits – development funds and the free movement of labour – to dream of leaving the EU themselves.
What seems ironic is that "while almost every other European country (including Germany) is struggling to form a government, or has settled for an unstable ruling coalition, the provincial strongmen in Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary can guarantee stability." The truth is that the older generation of eastern Europeans have not yet weaned themselves off their reliance on autocratic leadership. They find democracy chaotic and prefer law and order, even if it means an iron fist rule.
The author says, regardless of Hungary's authoritarian leader, Viktor Orbán's brand of “illiberal democracy,” German businesses appreciate his effort to create a "secure environment" for them. "The same cannot be said for Russia – whose volume of trade with Germany is only around the same as that of Hungary." Germany is not alone turning a blind eye to "illiberal democracy" within the V4 group. China also wants to mark its presence with the Chinese Development Bank investing "an additional €2 billion" in Central and Eastern Europe, where labour is cheaper than at home.
It remains to be seen whether the V4 group will be able to decide the EU's future. The Visegrád governments look to Viktor Orbán, for their rhetoric on Brussels. But for him, as for Poland, an EU without Britain means the loss of their most influential ally in Brussels and Strasbourg. Britain supported strongly the eastward enlargement, hoping it would distract Brussels from forging deeper integration. Bulgaria and Romania badly want EU investment and would prefer Britain to remain in the EU. Now that Britain had voted to leave, Sofia and Bucharest want Britain to make a full financial contribution to the EU budget.
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Steve Hurst Dec 1, 2017

Such a problem when democracy doesn't do what you want
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Victor Volkov Dec 1, 2017

It's obvious that Germany has the benefits from lower Euro rates. But it is also a major contributor to balance sheets of other European countries. And, please don't blame them for that. Without the Eurounion Germany would be another Swiss.
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Henk Crop Nov 30, 2017

The EU is a Union of Sovereign European Nations. This how it started and that is what must remain. The 27 members are too diverse in many aspects to make it a Sovereign Europe ( as Macron calls it ), one state. Too much integration increases resistance, leads to bureaucracy and makes the EU undemocratic and ultimately unmanageable.
The EU worked very well until the Euro was introduced.
The introduction of the Euro was for some countries an example of too much integration.

I agree that the Euro is too cheap for Germany and the Netherlands and that is an advantage to their export.
On the other hand they suffer from the low interest rates, which is to the benefit of countries with much debt.

However the issue is not only a monetary one, but above all a matter of developing a competitive economy.
The concept of the "ever closer Union" has to be dropped.
We do not want to hand over all our sovereignty and money to Brussels, where Technocrats, at great distance from the citizen, distribute it all over the EU.
When a poll was held in the Netherlands on Junckers road map it was rejected by 96 % of the voters.

It is good that Germany has dropped an anchor and preventing the EU from going in the same direction as the Soviet Union and other highly centralized states.
And if that leads to countries being hurt then it must be discussed how that can be resolved.
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Laszlo Nagy Nov 30, 2017

The original idea was to bring together the nations of Europe through economic integration, starting with the ECSC in 1951.
The fact, that despite political differences the V4 and Germany have flourishing trade, seems to further confirm, that the concept works.
The Treaty of Lisbon, the latest fundamental reform of the EU entered force on 1.12.2009 - just eight years ago. Perhaps further reform needs to wait until more stakholders are comfortable with it and find it practical.
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