Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and German Chancellor Angela Merkel Sean Gallup/Getty Images

摇着民粹主义尾巴的德国狗

华沙—一开始,9月德国联邦选举的最大输家是一个法国人和一个卢森堡人:法国总统马克龙和欧盟委员会主席容克。他们有各自的欧盟改革计划,都着眼于从欧盟开始加深一体化。

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容克呼吁所有非欧元成员国都接受单一货币,甚至还给出了路线图。与此同时,马克龙呼吁建立一个有共同预算的更加深入一体化的欧元区,共同预算部分可以用泛欧盟金融交易税筹集(目前只有法国和英国征收金融交易税)。他还呼吁任命一位欧元区财政部长,并采取措施协调各成员国的公司税和最低工资。

但容克和马克龙的计划需要德国的配合。而德国对于欧盟层面的改革没有什么热情,因为它是现状的受益者。在共同财政政策缺位的情况下,共同货币政策制造了一个非常有利于德国的失衡。作为欧元区最大经济体,德国和较穷的成员国共用一种货币,享受着人为提高的出口竞争力。

此外,尽管德国是世界第二大出口国(仅次于中国),它并没有用这一盈余来购买什么,这意味着其他欧盟国家,特别是较穷的南方成员国,无法从中获益。结果是形成了一个容易导致危机的安排,并且始终无法得到纠正,即使采用了社会转移支付和其他欧元区经济发展再平衡措施也无济于事。

从本质上说,德国抛下了一个锚,拽住了整个欧洲前进的脚步。而即使德国总统默克尔成功地让她的基督教民主联盟(CDU)、巴伐利亚姊妹党基督教社会联盟(CSU)、自由民主党(FDP)和绿党结成联合政府,这一点也无法改变。毕竟,FDP本质上是德国商界的政治工具。

当然,如果社会民主党(SPD)同意重新加入CDU和CSU结成执政大联盟,局面会有所不同。但如何不同还有待观察。SPD的支持率降到了二战以来最低点,它已经严重削弱,可能无法追求其自身的哪怕是争议最少的国内日程。

德国马歇尔基金会(German Marshall Fund)的汉斯·坤德纳尼(Hans Kundnani)总结道,德国选民将选票投给疑欧派的FDP和极右翼的德国另类选择党(AfD),而不是投给CDU和SPD,这已经表达了他们对于马克龙的欧盟改革计划的看法。如果他的总结正确,那么SPD支持欧盟层面的改革无异于政治自杀。

然而,所有这些关于欧盟改革的未竟的争论可能都毫无意义,因为决定欧盟命运的力量不在西欧,而在东欧。在默克尔权衡马克龙的方案的同时,她毫无疑问也要考虑德国的主要经济合作伙伴:高堡集团(Visegrád Group,V4),即捷克、匈牙利、波兰和斯洛伐克。

数字说明一切。据《法兰克福汇报》(Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung)2016年德国和V4的总贸易量为2,560亿欧元,远超中国(1,700亿欧元)和法国(1,670亿欧元)。

捷克和斯洛伐克经济常常被看成是德国经济的外延;而德国同样也是匈牙利和波兰的关键贸易伙伴。此外,德国与V4的贸易增长迅猛,2016年同比增加了9%,而与其传统最大贸易伙伴国法国的贸易增长只有0.6%。

但是,在德国成为欧盟经济霸主的同时,也变得越来越依赖其民粹主义的东方邻居。德国企业无法随心所欲地将目前的贸易伙伴替换掉。此外,其他地区也找不到同样的劳动力成本低、工作人口受教育程度高、经济增长率快、地理相近、政治稳定的组合。

正是如此:其他欧洲国家(包括德国)为了组建政府而焦头烂额,或者只能形成不稳定的执政联盟,但波兰、斯洛伐克和匈牙利外乡强人却能够保证稳定。不管你怎么看待匈牙利总理欧尔班和他的“反自由民主”的名声,你都不能否认他为德国商业利益集团创造了一个有保障的环境。俄罗斯便非如此——其对德贸易和对匈贸易差不多。

德国从经济上需要绥靖民粹主义,而其他国家也开始意识到V4的吸引力。上周,中国总理李克强宣布中国国家开发银行将增加20亿欧元的中东欧投资。中国正在把自己打造成与欧盟和美国抗衡的经济和科技对手。而由于中国本身不再是廉价劳动力的源泉,它也开始寻找潜在分包者——比如V4。

保加利亚公共知识分子伊万·克拉斯特夫(Ivan Krastev)的新书书名说明了一切。其英文版叫做《欧洲之后》(After Europe);法文版叫做《欧洲的命运》(Le destin de l’Europe);而德文版叫做《欧洲的黄昏》(Europadämmerung)。德文版已经成为畅销书。

http://prosyn.org/c4nS9qE/zh;

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