希腊要重蹈阿根廷的覆辙？

Feb 14, 2012 Mohamed A. El-Erian

纽波特比奇——

先让我设置一个场景:名声越来越差的经济政策方针导致国内社会和政治反对层出不穷、出现街头抗议和暴力活动、官方债权人之间出现分歧、私人债权人对无序的债务违约日益担忧。在这种情况下，国家领导人仍然致力于实施更多同样严厉的财政紧缩措施,两年来这些措施一直没有得到落实。官方债权人在私下里和公共场合都表达了怀疑的态度，但是他们都忍了下来并准备再次向他们所恐惧的无底洞注一笔资金。

似曾相识吧？应该是,但不仅仅是因为它就是今日希腊的写照。它也是2001时阿根廷面临的困境。如果欧洲不反思那次经历的主要经验教训，希腊面临的同样危机可能还包括金融危机,产出一泻千里、社会和政治动荡。

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Richard Gorton Feb 18, 2012

A possible ejection of Greece from the EU will not stop sovereign debt contagion from spreading through the EU. Ambrose Evans Pritchard writes an insightful article Just As Greece Complies At Last, Europe Pulls The Plug

Soon fears of debt contagion will arise again as they did in July 2011 where investors feared that a debt union had formed. Fears that the world central banks credit will no longer stimulate and liquefy financial assets will cause investors to derisk out of stocks and delever out of commodities and sell the world major currencies as well as the emerging market currencies.

With trust fleeting credit will turn bad, and interest rates on all types debt will rise. Soon there will be money good, and no sustainable level of debt.

Bible prophecy of Revelation 13:3-4, foretells that out of financial armageddon, that is a credit bust and financial system collapse, sovereign leaders will arise from regional framework agreements to replace sovereign nations. Lacking any money good, people will place their trust and faith in the word, will and way of these leaders. The people will give their allegiance to the diktat of the new sovereigns, who will meet in summits, waive national sovereignty, and establish a Federal Europe, with the ECB or the Bundesbank empowered as the EU’s bank, appoint monetary cardinals as stakeholders to manage the factors of production and provide credit as necessary; and appoint a EU wide technocratic government featuring fiscal commissioners who oversee structural reforms and manage government spending, and impose austerity measures for regional security and stability.

Fiat money and credit will soon die, putting capitalism in the grave. Diktat will serve as both credit and currency in the new economy of regional global governance.
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Paul A. Myers Feb 16, 2012

"...official creditors would do better to target the country’s key needs more directly." A plan of economic assistance separate and distinct from the bond transactions should be the strategic goal of the European Union. Get Greece stable and then growing.
The refinancing and inevitable write-down of the sovereign debt should be done to reduce near-term uncertainty while conveying the message that over the next couple of years Greece's debt is going to be "marked down" to something sustainable.
The European politicians should go to the European public and say they're rebuilding a customer and that there will be lots of work coming to those participating in the rebuilding. Then go announce some contracts, start pouring some concrete. Dangle some contracts in front of those Dutch, German, and French contractors. Don't any of these politicians know how to play the game?
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Zsolt Hermann Feb 15, 2012

There are some great differencies between Argentina's situation in 2001 and Greece's situation in 2012 or even in 2011.

The most important difference is that although people like to discuss Greece separately like some freak case, Greece's problems, and indeed the whole Eurozone problem (that is not hinged on Greece alone) is also only a part of the whole picture.

In 2001 there was no global crisis, or at least we did not know we were on the way towards one and most markets were performing quite well, so Argentina was at least superficially an isolated case.

Today in the global crisis, within this closed, interdependent global network there are no isolated cases, neither in their causes nor in their impacts.

Even if it is easy to point to the Greek nation as the primary cause of their plight it is unfair and untrue, they were led to this situartion by their stronger fellow countries in Europe as until things were going well Greece was good as it was, buying products and taking loans. Now suddenly the Greek people would need to become Germans, because that way they would be more useful, or less of a problem for the main players.

It does not work like this in an interdependent network.

Any association, union has to based on the total understanding, consideration of all the strength, weaknesses, special characters and behaviour of all the participants, and only on such a mutually responsible foundation can a sustainable structure be built.

The system has to be honest and transparent so each element understands its obligations, resposibilities to the others and knows exactly the consequences of any malfunction.

In a global, integral system any false practice, cheating leads to imminent collapse that affects each and every parts of the system.

Since today all 7 billion people are part of this interconnected system we can realize our responsibilities, and the weight of any plan or decision.

The laws of integral systems dictate that any time I introduce a negative influence into the system that negative influence returns to me as a boomerang with multiple force. We can see these laws in action each day reading the new about the global crisis.

Thus either we learn wisely about our new conditions, the laws we have to adapt to, or we learn about them through the suffering the unsolvable global crisis causes to all of us.

Separating seemingly isolated parts of the global crisis as if there was local or regional solution for them is a great mistake which delays any true solution significantly.
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希腊要重蹈阿根廷的覆辙？

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