Brendan Smialowski/Stringer

La lotta contro la prossima crisi finanziaria mondiale

NEW HAVEN – Cosa intende la gente quando critica i generali di “combattere la guerra precedente”? Non significa che i generali pensino di affidarsi agli stessi apparati bellici e di lottare sugli stessi campi di battaglia. Non sono così ingenui. L’errore, se di errore parliamo, deve essere a un livello più sottile. I generali talvolta sono troppo lenti a sviluppare piani e ordigni per questi nuovi apparati bellici e campi di battaglia. E fatto altrettanto importante, talvolta presumono che la psicologia pubblica, e le storie che influenzano la morale tanto importante per la vittoria, siano identiche a quelle dell’ultima guerra.

Ciò vale anche per gli enti di vigilanza il cui lavoro consiste nel prevenire le crisi finanziarie. Per le stesse ragioni, gli enti possono essere molto lenti a reagire alle nuove situazioni. E tendono ad adattarsi lentamente all’evoluzione della psicologia pubblica. La necessità di regolamentazione dipende da come la gente ha percepito l’ultima crisi, e come abbiamo sostenuto io e George Akerlof in Spiriti animali, tali percezioni dipendono fortemente da come cambiano le narrazioni popolari.

Gli ultimi report del Financial Stability Board (FSB) di Basilea segnalano evidenti miglioramenti di stabilità nelle regolamentazioni finanziarie in 24 grandi economie del mondo. Il loro “Dashboard” presenta i progressi in 14 diverse aree di regolamentazione. Ad esempio, il FSB assegna punteggi alti a tutti i 24 Paesi per l’implementazione dei requisiti patrimoniali basati sul rischio di Basilea III.

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