菲永能击败勒庞吗?

剑桥——在星期天进行的法国共和党总统初选中,弗朗索瓦·菲永以赢得67%选票的成绩毫无争议地击败了领跑者阿兰·朱佩。

仅仅两周前,明显处于劣势的候选人以绝对优势获胜似乎根本不可能。人们一直认为曾在雅克·希拉克总统内阁担任波尔多市长及前总理职务的朱佩将在第二轮决选中击败前总统尼古拉斯·萨科齐,也是另一位党内竞争领跑者。菲永曾在前总统萨科齐手下担任总理,从首回合开始即以44%的选票处于绝对领先地位。结果对萨科齐而言是一种耻辱,萨科齐只赢得了20%多一点的选票,并实际导致自身政治生涯终结。

对许多观察家而言,此次投票令人联想起6月的英国退欧公投和美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普本月早些时候的胜利。事实证明了显示菲永处于第三且与前两位差距巨大的民调结果错误,部分原因可能是许多投票者似乎是在投票前几天才做出决定的。社交媒体再次被认为发挥了关键的作用。在投票前的最后一场辩论中,菲永向公众证明自己是朱佩和萨科齐可靠的替代者。

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