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Поможет ли повышение процентных ставок росту экономики США?

БЕРКЛИ – Гендиректор Blackstone Тони Джеймс опубликовал недавно в газете Financial Timesстатью под названием «Ради оживления американской экономики повысьте процентные ставки». Это очень плохая идея.

Давайте представим, что мы перенеслись в параллельную вселенную, где ФРС США не удерживает процентные ставки на уровне, близком к нулю. Вместо этого, в течение предыдущих шести лет Федеральный резерв постепенно повышал ставки по федеральному фондированию, так что они стали на 400 базовых пунктов выше, чем сейчас в реальности. Но прежде чем рассматривать, как может выглядеть экономика этой альтернативной вселенной, давайте взглянем, что происходит в реальном мире.

В четвёртом квартале 2015 года объёмы новых сбережений домохозяйств, бизнеса и иностранных инвесторов в США составили $940 млрд. Из этой суммы $185 млрд были вложены в новые государственные облигации, а оставшиеся $755 млрд перетекли в инструменты сбережения, которые приносят проценты и дивиденды, а именно в кредиты, корпоративные облигации и новые выпуски акций. В свою очередь, это помогло увеличить объёмы производительного капитала в американском частном секторе.

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