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提高利率能提振美国增长吗?

伯克利—百仕通公司(Blackstone)首席执行官托尼·詹姆斯(Tony James)最近在《金融时报》发表了一篇专栏,名为《为复兴美国经济,提高利率》(To revive America’s economy, raise interest rates)。这真是一个坏主意。

想象我们被输送到平行世界,在那里,美联储并没有将利率保持在零或近零水平。相反,这个美联储在过去六年中逐步提高利率,联邦基金利率要比现在高400个基点。在探讨这个平行世界的经济将如何之前,我们先回顾一下真实世界发生了什么。

2015年四季度,家庭、企业和外国投资者在美国存了9,400亿美元。当是时,1,850亿美元投资于新发行政府债券,7,550亿美元流入产生利息和红利的储蓄工具,如贷款、公司债券和新股发行,这反过来增加了美国私人部门生产性资本存量。

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