50 euro banknote Daniel Roland/Stringer

¿Europa o anti-Europa?

MILÁN – Hace poco, un amigo muy informado me preguntó en Milán: “Si un inversor extranjero, por ejemplo, un estadounidense, quisiera invertir una suma sustancial en la economía italiana, ¿qué le recomendarías?”. Le respondí que aunque hay muchas oportunidades en diversas empresas y sectores, el ambiente general para las inversiones está complicado. De modo que le recomendaría invertir en compañía de un socio local informado, que sepa explorar el sistema y detectar riesgos parcialmente ocultos.

Claro que el mismo consejo se aplica a muchos otros países, como China, la India y Brasil. Pero la eurozona se está convirtiendo cada vez más en un bloque económico de dos velocidades, y las posibles derivaciones políticas de esta tendencia amplifican las inquietudes de los inversores.

En una reunión reciente de asesores de inversión de alto nivel, uno de los organizadores preguntó a los presentes si pensaban que el euro seguiría existiendo cinco años después. Sólo una persona entre 200 dijo que no, lo cual supone una evaluación colectiva de los riesgos bastante sorprendente, dada la actual situación económica de Europa.

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