Hoe ver zal de eurokoers dalen?

LONDEN – De koers van de Amerikaanse dollar bereikt vrijwel dagelijks nieuwe hoogtepunten, terwijl die van de euro onverbiddelijk lijkt te kelderen totdat één euro minder dan één dollar waard zal zijn. Valutabewegingen worden vaak beschreven als de meest onvoorspelbare van alle financiële variabelen; maar de recente gebeurtenissen op de buitenlandse valutamarkten lijken voor een keer een redelijk duidelijke verklaring te hebben, die door bijna alle economen en beleidsmakers wordt aanvaard en gesteund.

De Franse president François Hollande heeft de instortende eurokoers bijvoorbeeld in extatische bewoordingen verwelkomd: “Dit zorgt ervoor dat de zaken mooi en helder zijn: één euro is gelijk aan één dollar,” zei hij tegen een gehoor van industriëlen. Maar het is als zaken “mooi en helder” overkomen dat beleggers conventionele wijsheden in twijfel moeten gaan trekken. Een sterke dollar en een zwakke euro is zeker de meest populaire gok van 2015. Is er dus een kans dat de wisselkoerstrend reeds te ver is doorgeschoten?

In één opzicht is de conventionele verklaring voor de recente koersbewegingen van de euro en de dollar juist. De voornaamste drijvende kracht is duidelijk het uiteenlopende monetaire beleid. De Federal Reserve (Fed), het federale stelsel van Amerikaanse centrale banken, heeft de teugels aangehaald, terwijl de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) vasthoudt aan een ultralage rente en tegelijkertijd de teugels juist laat vieren. Maar hoeveel van dit verschil is al in de koersen verdisconteerd? Het antwoord hangt af van de vraag hoeveel mensen zich niet bewust zijn van het renteverschil of niet geloven dat het nog veel groter kan worden.

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