Economie, assure-toi

NEW HAVEN – Le principe de base de la gestion du risque financier est le partage. Plus nos portfolios financiers sont diversifiés, plus grand est le nombre de personnes qui partagent les risques inévitables – et moins un individu sera affecté par un risque donné. L’idéal théorique voudrait que les contrats financiers répartissent les risques partout dans le monde, de manière à ce que des milliards d’investisseurs volontaires détiennent chacun une petite part, et personne n’est surexposé.

Le cas du Japon montre que malgré la grande sophistication de certains de nos marchés financiers, nous sommes encore très loin de l’idéal théorique. Compte tenu d’énormes risques incorrectement gérés, la finance, même au XXIème siècle, est en fait encore plutôt primitive.

Une récente étude de la Banque Mondiale a estimé que les dommages provoqués par le triple désastre (tremblement de terre, tsunami, et crise nucléaire) en mars pourrait à terme coûter au Japon 235 milliards de dollars (sans compter la valeur des vies humaines tragiquement perdues). Cela équivaut à environ 4% du PIB japonais en 2010.

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