埃博拉的下一条战线

新德里——除西非外哪些国家最容易传播埃博拉疫情?多数流行病学家并不担心发达国家,发达国家建立了有效的隔离措施及跟踪程序,他们也不太担心人烟稀少的发展中国家。疫情在上述两种国家都很容易得到控制。但地域广大、人口稠密的地区如果缺乏有效的遏制机制,就很容易感染埃博拉。

印度因其移民人口庞大(稳居世界第二)、城市人口密集和卫生保健基础设施不到位而在埃博拉病毒传播的情况下有可能损失最大。印度与西非在过去一个世纪联系紧密,有近50,000名印度籍或印度裔民众在西非工作生活。

事实上,途经中东或欧洲乘机来往于阿克拉、拉各斯、弗里敦、蒙罗维亚、阿比让和新德里、孟买、加尔各答、钦奈的人数每天高达数十人之多。虽然疫区所有国际机场都实行了出口管控,但病毒的潜伏期(本次疫情显示平均为8天左右,但最长可达21天)意味着近期感染但尚未显示任何症状的携带者可以在不为人知的情况下抵达印度。

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