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网络空间中的威慑

发自巴黎—今年早些时候,有美国官员承认是本国的进攻性网络行动阻止了俄罗斯对2018年国会选举的破坏。这类行动以往很少被提及,但如今却出现了针对一种潜在对手实施“持续接触”的新攻击学说的讨论。那么这种学说能起作用吗?

那些“持续接触”的支持者们试图通过论证威慑在网络空间的无力性来增强自身说服力。但这其实会构成一种错误的二元对立。只要使用得当,新的攻击性学说也可以强化威慑力,而非取而代之。

所谓威慑,就是通过让某人相信其成本将超过预期收益来阻止其行动。对网络空间中威慑的理解通常较为困难,因为我们的思想仍局限于冷战形成的威慑印象之中—那种大规模报复性核武攻击的威胁。但这种类比是有误导性的,因为核武器的目标是完全制止。而网络空间中的威慑更像是犯罪:政府只能有限地阻止它。

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