Pour un nouveau marché obligataire indexé sur la croissance

Il y a un an, lors du Sommet des Amériques, 34 chefs d’Etat occidentaux se sont mis d’accord pour promouvoir l’émission d’obligations gouvernementales dont les dividendes seraient indexés sur le produit intérieur brut (PIB). Mais il n’y a guère eu de progrès depuis. Une seule proposition est en discussion ; elle vient de l’Argentine. Une occasion unique de renforcer l’infrastructure financière internationale et d’accroître l’efficacité de l’économie pour les années à venir risque de disparaître.

Depuis 1993, année de publication de mon livre Macro Markets, je défends l’idée de créer des obligations liées à la croissance. Le PIB étant l’indicateur économique le plus complet qui existe, le plus simple serait pour un gouvernement d’émettre des titres à long terme dont les dividendes - versés à intervalles réguliers - seraient proportionnels au PIB du pays.

Supposons que le gouvernement argentin émette des obligations sur une durée quasi illimitée qui rapportent un dividende annuel en pesos de un dix-milliardième du PIB de l’Argentine. Le PIB annuel argentin s’élevant actuellement à 500 milliards de pesos, chaque obligation rapporterait 50 pesos (environ 17 dollars ou 13 euros) par an et son évolution suivrait celle de l’économie argentine.

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