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Inflation, hérésie et politique

Jan 11, 2022 Dani Rodrik

CAMBRIDGE – Après une longue période d'absence durant laquelle les responsables politiques s'inquiétaient plutôt du risque de déflation, la menace inflationniste pèse à nouveau sur le monde et le vieux débat sur la manière de restaurer la stabilité des prix fait à nouveau surface.

Les gouvernements doivent-ils resserrer leur politique monétaire et budgétaire en diminuant les dépenses et en augmentant les taux d'intérêt (la stratégie classique pour faire face à l'inflation ou aller dans la direction opposée en baissant les taux d'intérêt, suivant ainsi le chemin de la banque centrale turque sous la direction du président Erdogan ? Ou peut-être devraient-ils intervenir directement en contrôlant les prix et en limitant la marge de manœuvre des grandes entreprises en la matière comme le proposent certains économistes et historiens aux USA ?

Si vous optez instinctivement pour l'une de ces mesures tout en rejetant les autres, pensez-y à deux fois. En économie toutes les situations sont différentes, et chacune appelle à une politique différente. La seule réponse que l'on puisse apporter à la question de ce qu'il faut faire en économie est "Ça dépend".

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Turkey's Risky Inflation Experiment Economics
Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Turkey's Risky Inflation Experiment

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argues that the country’s unconventional monetary policy will aggravate the problems it is meant to solve.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 9 Comments on this article

Rajnish Wadehra Feb 2, 2022

Well said Prof Rodrik, but please consider this: the impact of lockdowns was the absence of demand or low demand and its impact on businesses. has had on businesses.
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Dallas Weaver, Ph.D. Jan 13, 2022

Having observed up close an inflationary instability in Brazil in my graduate student days of the '60s and how inflation destroys the ability to do any long-range planning or rational development as people bought rebar steel as a store of value in the face of 20%+ inflation/mo. What will that machine cost two years from now?

At that time the world had the dollar tied to gold and we could do our economic analysis in dollars to determine what made economic sense over time. This at least provided a reference of value.

If we view inflation as the absolute decrease in the value of the dollar we can see that inflation is just creating too much money relative to the supply of real assets. The real effort to make an asset like a factory will only change slowly over time but the representation of effort in dollars will increase with the decrease in the relative value of the dollar. The factory is real and the dollar is just a convenient representation of the value of the factory.

By decreasing the value of the dollar, our government can steal value from all holders of cash, bonds, and savings in liquid assets. It can also steal value from other countries as a reserve currency as the value of all their reserves decreases. The Feds have been good at hiding this theft of value, but that may change.

Imagine China selling their bonds and dollar reserves that they really don't need. The real loss of value in the dollar would be revealed as interest rates increased and just printing more money would put us in the spiral that I observed in Brazil. More inflation, more taxes, higher interest on Gov't debt, creating more money which decreases the absolute value of the dollar which creates more apparent inflation.
- Claudio Migliore Jan 14, 2022
  
  Mr. Weaver's comment has the concreteness and clarity that the article lacks. It might be because the author (of the article) is not comfortable with the conclusions a clear analysis leads to. That is: regardless of complex equivocations or smart econometrics, inflation beyond short term oscillations is simply the debasement of the currency and it is tied inevitably to someone inventing undeserved purchasing power to compete for a, sadly, finite supply of goods.
  Mr. Weaver, you have Brazil in the sixties? I raise you Argentina in the eighties (or today for that matter!)
  - Dallas Weaver, Ph.D. Jan 14, 2022
    
    You are right, Argentina may even trump Brazil in theft.
    
    My present concern is what will happen if the reserve currency of the world can no longer be a store of value and a reference point for future planning. Without valid accounting and cost estimates, any projections of the future become meaningless and planning becomes impossible.
    - Claudio Migliore Jan 15, 2022
      
      I completely share your concern. The pain for Brazilians, Argentines or Zimbabweans, albeit real, is little compared to the global pain from the loss of a stable global currency. That is why it worries me so much that those who MUST know better play around with words to abet the debasing of the currency.
      In perspective, years from now, another yardstick for value will certainly have emerged and the pain will be history. Our lords to whom we grant seigniorage, by abusing their power, engender their own demise, but everyone will feel the pain.
      What I worry as well is what will fill the void: a decentralized option for which the world may not yet be mature or another overlord even more intent on abuse, such as an authoritarian government.
      Unlike Argentines, the world citizenry, spared so far the experiences, have no concept of monetary illusion, currency debasement et altera, so it is easy for governments and their apologists to gloss over the incoming iceberg.
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Edgardo Tsorng Jan 12, 2022

Please read the link below:
Autopsy and correlation of people who died of vaccines.
https://doctors4covidethics.org/on-covid-vaccines-why-they-cannot-work-and-irrefutable-evidence-of-their-causative-role-in-deaths-after-vaccination/

Early on, the double-jabbed appeared to have good protection, but that quickly changed. The Pfizer jab went from 92% effectiveness at day 15 through 30, to 47% at day 121 through 180, and zero from day 201 onward.
The Moderna shot had a similar trajectory, being estimated at 59% from day 181 onward.The AstraZeneca injection had a lower effectiveness out of the gate, waned faster than the mRNA shots, and had no detectable effectiveness as of day 121.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949410

85% of COVID Deaths Could Have Been Prevented … So What Happened?

Of the people who died from COVID in the U.S., none received adequate and/or early enough treatment, Dr. Peter McCullough told podcast host Joe Rogan. If they had, at least 85% of them would have survived.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/covid-deaths-could-have-been-prevented/

Early views of Prof. Luc Montagnier.
It is clear that the new variants are created by antibody-mediated selection due to the vaccination

https://rairfoundation.com/bombshell-nobel-prize-winner-reveals-covid-vaccine-is-creating-variants/

What the insurance industry sees
Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica.
“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.
“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10%increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” “What the data is showing to us is that the deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working-age people from the pandemic.It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers.”He said at the same time, the company is seeing an “uptick” in disability claims, saying at first it was short-term disability claims, and now the increase is in long-term disability claims.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/indiana/indiana-life-insurance-ceo-says-deaths-are-up-40-among-people-ages-18-64/article_71473b12-6b1e-11ec-8641-5b2c06725e2c.html
- James Yetman Jan 12, 2022
  
  Dr. Peter McCullough's arguments are strongly disputed- eg here: https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/joe-rogan-interview-with-peter-mccullough-contains-multiple-false-and-unsubstantiated-claims-about-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-vaccines/
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Leila Pammy Jan 11, 2022

Well said, Prof. Rodrik. This was a lucid and brilliant exposition of the merits and flaws of the different anti-inflation approaches. And a reminder how situation-specific the "science" of economics is.
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