Jak se vypořádat s riziky katastrof

Jaké jsme si rok po cunami v Indickém oceánu vzali z události ponaučení? Nejdůležitější lekcí je to, že se jednalo právě o ten typ katastrofy, jemuž zákonodárci věnují příliš málo pozornosti – šlo o pohromu s nízkou nebo neznámou pravděpodobností výskytu, která ovšem způsobuje obrovské škody, jakmile k ní dojde. Třebaže počet mrtvých, fyzické i citové strádání těch, kdo přežili, i škody na majetku, jež cunami způsobilo, byly nesmírné, jiné katastrofy s nízkou (ale ne zanedbatelnou) nebo neznámou pravděpodobností výskytu by mohly zapříčinit ještě větší ztráty.

Například asteroid, který v roce 1908 explodoval nad Sibiří se silou vodíkové bomby, mohl zabít miliony lidí, kdyby k jeho výbuchu došlo nad velkým městem. Přesto průměr tohoto asteroidu činil jen asi 60 metrů. Na Zemi by mohl dopadnout mnohem větší asteroid (jeden z tisíců nebezpečně velkých asteroidů na oběžných drahách, které se křižují s oběžnou dráhou Země) a kombinací nárazových vln, požárů, vln cunami a znemožnění průniku slunečního svitu způsobit naprostý zánik lidského rodu.

Mezi další rizika patří přirozené epidemie (španělská chřipka si v letech 1918 až 1919 vyžádala životy 20 až 40 milionů lidí), jaderné či biologické útoky teroristů, určité typy laboratorních nehod a překotné globální oteplování. Pravděpodobnost katastrof způsobených – ať záměrně, či nezáměrně – v důsledku lidské činnosti podle všeho kvůli rychlosti a směřování technologických pokroků roste.

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