Businessmen and shoppers walk along Madison Avenue Spencer Platt/Getty Images

缺失的增长要素

米兰/纽约—如今,全球经济大部已经进入积极趋势:失业在下降,产出缺口在消失,增长在起势,此外,出于尚不明确的原因,通胀仍然低于主要央行的目标。另一方面,生产率增长仍然萎靡,收入不平等性不断加剧,文化程度较低的工人难以找到有吸引力就业机会。

在实施了八年的激进刺激后,发达经济体正在走出漫长的去杠杆化过程。这一过程具有天然的需求侧增长抑制作用。随着债务水平和组成的变化,去杠杆压力已经减小,全球同步扩张成为可能。

但是,GDP增长的主要决定因素——以及增长模式的包容度——早晚要归于生产率的提高。但是,从目前的情况看,有足够的理由怀疑生产率增长能否自动复苏。政策组合中缺失了一些重要要素,这使得实现全要素生产率增长和转向更包容的增长模式变得更加困难。

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