China Economy Wang Zhao/Stringer

Un Programma di Crescita per la Cina

MILANO/PECHINO – Nel momento in cui gli Stati Uniti sono in procinto di ripiegarsi verso l’interno, gli andamenti economici della Cina sono più importanti che mai a livello mondiale. Se nei prossimi anni la Cina potrà raggiungere modelli di crescita sostenibili dipenderà da una serie di fattori chiave.

Tra le principali variabili esogene in grado di determinare le prospettive della Cina emerge il suo rapporto con gli Stati Uniti sotto la presidenza di Donald Trump. Idealmente, i due governi potrebbero collaborare per negoziare accordi commerciali e d’investimento reciprocamente vantaggiosi, con sensibilità per le sfide a cui devono far fronte entrambe le parti. Ma anche l’esito opposto – l’escalation di controversie commerciali e d’investimento reciprocamente dannose – è una possibilità concreta.

L’incertezza politica è in aumento anche in Europa. Anche se il suo impatto sulla Cina non sarebbe così diretto come le azioni di Trump, si tratta di una fonte di rischi significativi a medio termine per l’intera economia mondiale.

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