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中国经济日程

Dec 26, 2016 Michael Spence , Qian Wan

米兰/北京—在美国即将向内转之际，中国经济表现对全球变得至关重要。未来几年，中国能否实现可持续增长将取决于诸多重要因素。

影响中国前景的主要外部因素之一是其与唐纳德·特朗普的美国的关系。理想的情况是两国政府合作协商双赢贸易和投资协定，对双方均面临的挑战保持敏锐。但相反的结果——双输贸易和投资纠纷升级——的可能性同样不小。

欧洲政治不确定性也在增加。其对中国的影响不如特朗普的行动直接，但也是对整个全球经济的重要中期风险源。

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Michael Spence

Writing for PS since 2008
108 Commentaries

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Advisory Board Co-Chair of the Asia Global Institute in Hong Kong, and Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

Qian Wan

Writing for PS since 2016
1 Commentary

Qian Wan is a PhD student in Political Economy at Renmin University in Beijing.

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B Wilds Dec 30, 2016

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has forecast China's economic growth will further slow in 2017 to 6.5 percent, this would be the slowest pace in more than 25 years. The fact is many of us with an eye on China argue this number is still far too high.

A great capital unwinding is continuing as money that has flowed into China for decades attempts to leave the country and taking with it much of the wealth it has produced. These massive capital outflows are distorting both currencies and economies throughout the world. More thoughts on this issue in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2016/12/china-expecting-slower-growth-in-2017.html
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Luke Lea Dec 27, 2016

Shorter version: China lacks a true capital market. Party is ALL.
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Godfree Roberts Dec 26, 2016

The article demonstrates considerable unfamiliarity with China's SOE sector–for sector it is and sector it will continue to be. THE sector, in fact, for the foreseeable future, since it contains China's most profitable, influential industries which the State uses to guide the economy while simultaneously taking the healthy dividends (some fiscal, some social) and investing them in eliminating urban poverty this year. Next year that stream of dividends (from SOE insurers and SOE banks) will be directed at the last pockets of rural poverty, with the goal of getting 11 million poor people out of poverty annually until 2021, when they will all be taken care of.

Besides, isn't it a bit cheeky for a representative of a failing economy to be admonishing representatives of a staggeringly successful (while rescuing those poor people it simultaneously creates a new billionaire every week) economy on earth?

Isn't it time we began discovering how China does what it does, decade after decade, while keeping strong public support for its policies?
- Raja Rajamani Jan 25, 2017
  
  Agree 100% on the tone of your post. China's achievement of alleviating poverty has not happened anywhere before on such scale with such rapidity. And unlikely to happen again, as the closest parallel would be India. India with its bureaucracy and a heavy baggaged democracy has no chance of growing as fast as China, or removing the abject poverty that still is found in several pockets of the country.
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