O Plano de Jogo Afegão da China

MADRID – No seu último livro, Sobre a China, Henry Kissinger usa os jogos intelectuais tradicionais preferidos pela China e pelo Ocidente – o weiqi e o xadrez – como um meio para revelar as suas diferentes atitudes relativamente às políticas do poder internacional. O xadrez é sobre a vitória total, uma batalha Clausewitziana pelo “centro de gravidade” e pela eventual eliminação do inimigo, enquanto o weiqi é uma busca de vantagem relativa, através de uma estratégia de cerco que evita o conflito directo.

Este contraste cultural é um guia útil para o modo como a China gere a sua actual competição com o Ocidente. A política Afegã da China é um caso particular, mas é também um desafio formidável para a via do weiqi. À medida que os Estados Unidos se preparam para retirar as suas tropas do país, a China irá lidar com um incerto cenário pós-guerra.

O Afeganistão é de interesse estratégico vital para a China, e no entanto nunca passou pela cabeça dos seus líderes usar a guerra para defender esses interesses. Uma zona de segurança vital para o ocidente da China, o Afeganistão é também um corredor importante através do qual pode assegurar os seus interesses no Paquistão (um aliado tradicional na competição entre a China e a Índia), e assegurar o seu acesso a recursos naturais vitais na região. Além disso, a já de si inquieta e maioritariamente Muçulmana província Chinesa de Xinjiang, que faz fronteira com o Afeganistão, poderá ser perigosamente afectada por uma insurreição Talibã, ou pelo desmembramento do país.

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