renminbi Jie Zhao/Corbis/Getty Images

Sollte China von den Sonderziehungsrechten ausgeschlossen werden?

SANTA BARBARA – Letzte Woche hat die chinesische Regierung ihre Kontrolle über den Wechselkurs des Renminbi verstärkt. Die Politiker des Landes haben damit jetzt endgültig ihr Versprechen gebrochen, das sie vor 18 Monaten gegeben hatten. Damit hatten sie ihrer Währung damals Zugang zu dem Währungskorb verschafft, der den Wert der synthetischen Reservewährung des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) – der Sonderziehungsrechte – bestimmt.

Chinas jüngste Aktion wird das Vertrauen in die Währung des Landes wohl kaum vergrößern. Damals hatten einige von uns bereits gewarnt, den Renminbi zum Korb der Sonderziehungsrechte (Special Drawing Rights, SDR) hinzuzufügen sei eine höchst politische Entscheidung, die sich auf lange Sicht nachteilig auswirken könnte. Vorher bestand der Korb aus dem US-Dollar, dem Euro, dem britischen Pfund und dem japanischen Yen – alles Weltklassewährungen, die die beiden Zugangskriterien des IWF erfüllen: Sie werden von den weltweit führenden Exportnationen herausgegeben, und sie sind „frei nutzbar“, das heißt, sie finden in aller Welt Verwendung.

Als aber der Renminbi zum Korb der SDR hinzugefügt wurde, erfüllte er lediglich das erste Kriterium. Obwohl China damals bereits die größte Exportnation der Welt war, waren die chinesischen Finanzmärkte nur wenig entwickelt, und die Währung des Landes war weit davon entfernt, frei nutzbar zu sein. 2015 stand der Renminbi bei den globalen Zentralbankreserven an siebter, bei der internationalen Anleihenausgaben an achter und beim globalen Währungshandel an elfter Stelle. Und für die meisten Kapitalverkehrstransaktionen war die chinesische Währung weiterhin nicht konvertierbar.

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