Shanghai shopping road Matteo Colombo/Getty Images

Claves de la resiliencia económica china

NEW HAVEN – Una vez más, la economía china refuta los temores de los pesados profetas del pesimismo. Tras seis años consecutivos de desaceleración, 2017 trae consigo una recuperación del crecimiento del PIB real. La cifra anualizada del 6,9% que acaba de anunciarse para el segundo trimestre supera el 6,7% de 2016 y excede ampliamente el consenso de los analistas internacionales, que hace muy pocos meses preveían para este año un crecimiento más cercano al 6,5%, y menor aún, el 6%, en 2018.

Llevo tiempo diciendo que la obsesión con el PIB no deja ver cuestiones más importantes para el debate sobre el crecimiento de China, ya que la economía de este país atraviesa una extraordinaria transformación estructural que la lleva de un modelo productor basado en las manufacturas a un modelo de consumo basado en servicios cada vez más potente.

En tanto esto implica un cambio en la composición del PIB, que sustituye un crecimiento relativamente rápido en inversiones y exportaciones por otro relativamente lento en consumo privado interno, una desaceleración del crecimiento general del PIB es a la vez inevitable y deseable. La presunta vulnerabilidad de China debe analizarse en este contexto.

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