pumpjack oil drilling site Mint Images/ZumaPress

廉价石油和全球增长

伦敦—油价的暴力波动正在动摇全世界经济和金融市场。去年油价腰斩,从每桶110美元暴跌至55美元,原因显而易见:沙特阿拉伯决定通过扩大产能增加其占全球石油市场的份额。但过去几周油价进一步暴跌——跌到了2008年全球金融危机爆发后的所达到的低位——原因何在,对世界经济会造成怎样的影响?

标准解释是中国需求疲软,石油价格崩盘被广泛视为衰退的前兆,可能是中国衰退,也可能是整个全球经济衰退。但这几乎肯定是错误的,即使石油和股市之间的强相关性似乎确认了这一点。这一相关性已跌至2009年以来的最低点,不仅中国如此,欧洲和大部分新兴经济体亦然。

石油价格的预测重要性确实令人印象深刻,不过是作为作为反向指标:石油价格下跌从未正确预示过经济衰退。在最近所发生的所有油价腰斩现象中——1982—1983、1985—1986、1992—1993、1997—1998、2001—2002年——随之而来的都是全球增长加速。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/ngsInUq/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now