pumpjack oil drilling site Mint Images/ZumaPress

廉价石油和全球增长

伦敦—油价的暴力波动正在动摇全世界经济和金融市场。去年油价腰斩,从每桶110美元暴跌至55美元,原因显而易见:沙特阿拉伯决定通过扩大产能增加其占全球石油市场的份额。但过去几周油价进一步暴跌——跌到了2008年全球金融危机爆发后的所达到的低位——原因何在,对世界经济会造成怎样的影响?

标准解释是中国需求疲软,石油价格崩盘被广泛视为衰退的前兆,可能是中国衰退,也可能是整个全球经济衰退。但这几乎肯定是错误的,即使石油和股市之间的强相关性似乎确认了这一点。这一相关性已跌至2009年以来的最低点,不仅中国如此,欧洲和大部分新兴经济体亦然。

石油价格的预测重要性确实令人印象深刻,不过是作为作为反向指标:石油价格下跌从未正确预示过经济衰退。在最近所发生的所有油价腰斩现象中——1982—1983、1985—1986、1992—1993、1997—1998、2001—2002年——随之而来的都是全球增长加速。

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