Theresa May Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

Норвежское решение для Британии

ЛОНДОН – Вскоре после решения британского премьер-министра Терезы Мэй провести неожиданные «Брексит-выборы» я писал, что у проевропейски настроенных британцев ещё есть шанс вырвать победу из пасти поражения. Но я говорил о перспективе пяти лет, а не пяти недель.

Как долго Мэй будет оставаться премьер-министром, теперь невозможно предсказать. Её судьба будет зависеть от персональных вендетт и византийской политической борьбы, причём не только в Лондоне, но и в Эдинбурге и Белфасте. Однако вопросы, которые имеют значение при прогнозировании результатов переговоров о Брексите, больше не связаны с политическим выживанием Мэй.

К чему склоняется парламентская арифметика и общественное мнение Британии – к поддержке или к отрицанию «жёсткого Брексита», который, в соответствии с предвыборными планами Мэй, предусматривает резкое ограничение иммиграции и выход из таможенного союза, общего рынка и правовой юрисдикции Евросоюза? И если британцы разворачиваются против программы Мэй, предложат ли им лидеры Евросоюза компромисс, который позволит сохранить лицо? Схожий компромисс был предложен Норвегии, которая находится вне институциональных структур ЕС, но согласилась нести большинство обязательств и расходов обычного члена ЕС в обмен на коммерческие выгоды участия в общем рынке.

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